Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-1-24

Euro Rebound Stalls as Sterling and Dollar Mount a Comeback

Euro has seen a notable rebound as the new week commenced, though the lack of follow-through buying momentum is evident. The initial results from French parliamentary elections were not as dire as investors had feared. The far-right National Rally's victory was not as overwhelming as anticipated. However, significant uncertainty remains as political parties scramble to form a coalition to block the National Rally from gaining power.

Leaders of both the left-wing New Popular Front and President Macron's centrist alliance announced on Sunday night that they would withdraw their candidates in districts where another candidate stands a better chance of defeating the National Rally in the upcoming run-off on Sunday. Despite this strategic move, it remains unclear how such a coalition will be effectively implemented and whether it will succeed in preventing the far-right from gaining a foothold in the government...

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0692; (P) 1.0708; (R1) 1.0731; More....

EUR/USD edged higher to 1.0775 earlier today but failed to break through 55 D EMA (now at 1.0773) and retreated. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 55 D EMA will argue that pull back from 1.0915 has completed. Further rise should be seen back to 1.0915 resistance. However, break of 1.0665 will resume larger down trend through 1.0601 low instead.

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EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Revised
23:50	JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturing Index Q2	13	11	11
23:50	JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q2	14	10
23:50	JPY	Tankan Non - Manufacturing Index Q2	33	33	34
23:50	JPY	Tankan Non - Manufacturing Outlook Q2	27	27
23:50	JPY	Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q2	11.10%	4%
00:30	JPY	Manufacturing PMI Jun F	50	50.1	50.1
01:45	CNY	Caixin Manufacturing PMI Jun	51.8	51.2	51.7
05:00	JPY	Consumer Confidence Jun	36.4	36.5	36.2
06:30	CHF	Real Retail Sales Y/Y May	0.40%	2.50%	2.70%	2.20%
07:30	CHF	Manufacturing PMI Jun	43.9	44.9	46.4
07:45	EUR	Italy Manufacturing PMI Jun	45.7	44.5	45.6
07:50	EUR	France Manufacturing PMI Jun F	45.4	45.3	45.3
07:55	EUR	Germany Manufacturing PMI Jun F	43.5	43.4	43.4
08:00	EUR	Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jun F	45.8	45.6	45.6
08:30	GBP	Manufacturing PMI Jun F	50.9	51.4	51.4
08:30	GBP	M4 Money Supply M/M May	-0.10%	0.20%	0.10%	0.00%
08:30	GBP	Mortgage Approvals May	60K	61K	61K
12:00	EUR	Germany CPI M/M Jun P	0.10%	0.20%	0.10%
12:00	EUR	Germany CPI Y/Y Jun P	2.20%	2.30%	2.40%
13:45	USD	Manufacturing PMI Jun F	51.7	51.7
14:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI Jun	49.3	48.7
14:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Jun	55.9	57
14:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing Employment Index Jun	51.1
14:00	USD	Construction Spending M/M May	0.30%	-0.10%