EUR/GBP Downside Breakout on Robust UK Wage Growth, Poor Eurozone Economic Sentiment

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-11-23

EUR/GBP Downside Breakout on Robust UK Wage Growth, Poor Eurozone Economic Sentiment

British Pound sees a broad rally today, fueled by robust wage growth, indicating that secondary inflationary pressure remains persistent, which will likely force BoE to continue tightening. In contrast, Euro fell sharply due to plunging economic sentiment, leading to a downside breakout in EUR/GBP, resuming its recent downward trend.

As it stands, Yen remains the top performer, slightly edging out the Pound. Swiss Franc is not far behind, benefitting from an influx of buyers from Euro. Australian and New Zealand Dollar are underperforming, even falling behind the weakened Euro. Dollar presents a mixed picture, with a recovery against Euro, range trading against commodity currencies, but weak against Sterling, Swiss Franc, and Yen.

Technically, with breach of 0.8818 support, USD/CHF is now having 0.8756 (2021 low). Ideally, strong support should be seen from 0.8756 to bring bullish trend reversal, to extend the long term sideway pattern. However, decisive break of 0.8756 will be a strong sign persistent long term bullishness in the France. If realized, that would likely be accompanied by extended fall in EUR/CHF too.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.10%. DAX is up 0.75%. CAC is up 1.27%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.015 at 2.627. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.04%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.97%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.55%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.46%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0168 to 0.456.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/GBP Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8535; (P) 0.8559; (R1) 0.8579; More...

Break of 0.8517 in EUR/GBP indicates resumption of recent down trend. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.8874 to 0.8517 from 0.8650 at 0.8436. On the upside, above 0.8583 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8657 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales Y/Y Jun 4.20% 3.70%
23:50 JPY Money Supply M2+CD Y/Y Jun 2.60% 2.70% 2.70%
00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Jul 2.70% 0.20%
01:30 AUD NAB Business Conditions Jun 9 8
01:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Jun 0 -4
06:00 GBP Claimant Count Change Jun 25.7K 20.5K -13.6K -22.5K
06:00 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) May 4.00% 3.80% 3.80%
06:00 GBP Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Y May 6.90% 6.80% 6.50% 6.70%
06:00 GBP Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Y May 7.30% 7.10% 7.20% 7.30%
06:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Jun F 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%
06:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Jun F 6.40% 6.40% 6.40%
08:00 EUR Italy Industrial Output M/M May 1.60% 0.90% -1.90% -2.00%
09:00 EUR Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Jul -14.7 -9.5 -8.5
09:00 EUR Germany ZEW Current Situation Jul -59.5 -60 -56.5
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Jul -12.2 -10.2 -10
10:00 USD NFIB Business Optimism Index Jun 91 89.9 89.4