Loonie Rebounds on Strong Jobs Data, Sterling Hit by GDP Miss
| Action Insight Mid-Day 7-11-25 |
Loonie Rebounds on Strong Jobs Data, Sterling Hit by GDP Miss |
Canadian Dollar staged an impressive rebound after June’s employment report far outpaced expectations, reviving hopes that BoC can stay on hold despite mounting trade pressures. The release comes just after US President Donald Trump announced sweeping 35% tariffs on Canadian imports, which initially drove the Loonie lower. With interest rates sitting at 2.75%—a level seen as largely neutral, today's’s data gives BoC additional justification to delay any further policy action. Policymakers are likely to wait and evaluate the full effects of the tariffs before committing to the next move. Meanwhile, in the UK, recession risks are rising after GDP contracted for a second straight month. The economic miss raises doubts about BoE’s current path of gradual, quarterly rate cuts. Market pricing now reflects over 75% odds of a 25-basis-point BoE cut in August. BoE had projected 0.25% GDP growth in Q2, but unless June’s GDP rebounds sharply, a quarterly contraction is now a real possibility. On the FX front, Aussie remains the top performer of the week. while Dollar and Swiss Franc are next in line. Yen is stuck at the bottom, with Pound and Euro also under pressure. Loonie’s rebound keeps it in the middle, alongside Kiwi...... |
USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3636; (P) 1.3666; (R1) 1.3692; More... USD/CAD retreated after a brief spike to 1.3729 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. Overall, consolidation pattern from 1.3538 could still extend. Above 1.3729 will target 1.3797 resistance and possibly above. On the downside, however, break of 1.3637 minor support will bring retest of 1.3538/55 support zone instead. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:30 | NZD | Business NZ PMI Jun | 48.8 | 47.5 | 47.4 | | 06:00 | GBP | GDP M/M May | -0.10% | 0.10% | -0.30% | | 06:00 | GBP | Manufacturing Production M/M May | -1% | -0.10% | -0.90% | -0.70% | | 06:00 | GBP | Manufacturing Production Y/Y May | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.40% | 1.30% | | 06:00 | GBP | Industrial Production M/M May | -0.90% | 0% | -0.60% | | 06:00 | GBP | Industrial Production Y/Y May | -0.30% | 0.10% | -0.30% | 0.30% | | 06:00 | GBP | Goods Trade Balance (GBP) May | -21.7B | -21.1B | -23.2B | -22.4B | | 12:30 | CAD | Net Change in Employment Jun | 83.1K | 0.9K | 8.8K | | 12:30 | CAD | Unemployment Rate Jun | 6.90% | 7.10% | 7% | | 12:30 | CAD | Building Permits M/M May | 12.00% | -1.50% | -6.60% |
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