Dollar's Plunge Deepens After Underwhelming Consumer Inflation Figures

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-12-23

Dollar's Plunge Deepens After Underwhelming Consumer Inflation Figures

Dollar's decline accelerates again following US inflation data that reflected a more substantial than anticipated slowing in both core and headline CPI for June. Although the underwhelming data might not deter Fed from delivering another rate hike later this month, it may alleviate pressure for subsequent increases.

In response to the data, US stock futures appear to be on an upward trajectory, while 10-year yield is continuing its near term pull back. Correspondingly, gold is seeing a solid rally, propelled by greenback's weakness.

For now, Yen appears to be the biggest beneficiary, maintaining its position as the strongest currency. Hot on its heels is Euro, but Sterling is currently floundering, ranking as the second weakest next to Dollar. Australian and New Zealand Dollars have also gained strength following Euro, although Canadian Dollar remains steady as traders adopt a cautious approach in anticipation of BoC's imminent interest rate decision.

Technically, Gold's rebound is also accelerating as seen in 4H MACD. Next focus is 38.2% retracement of 2062.95 to 1892.76 at 1957.77. Firm break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1997.93, with prospect of at least a test on 2000 psychological level.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 1.62%. DAX is up 1.20%. CAC is up 1.08%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.0459 at 2.607. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -0.81%. Hong Kong HSI rose 1.08%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.78%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.36%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0239 to 0.480.

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USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.86; (P) 140.66; (R1) 141.16; More...

USD/JPY reaches as low as 138.75 so far today as fall from 145.06 continues today. Next target is 137.90 resistance turned support. Decisive break there will confirm the larger bearish case. On the upside, above 142.06 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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RBNZ Monetary Policy Review: Play it again Sam!
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Research US - Rising Real Rates Cast a Shadow Over Upbeat Macro Data
Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY PPI Y/Y Jun 4.10% 4.50% 5.10% 5.20%
23:50 JPY Machinery Orders M/M May -7.60% 1.20% 5.50%
02:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 5.50% 5.50% 5.50%
12:30 USD CPI M/M Jun 0.20% 0.30% 0.10%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Jun 3.00% 3.10% 4.00%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Jun 0.20% 0.30% 0.40%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Jun 4.80% 5.00% 5.30%
14:00 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision 5.00% 4.75%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.1M -1.5M
15:00 CAD BoC Press Conference
18:00 USD Fed's Beige Book