Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-13-21

Dollar Rebounds after Strong US CPI Reading, But Still Range Bound

Dollar rebounds strongly in early US session after much stronger than expected CPI inflation reading. The headline reading has indeed been trend up every month since January and showed no sign of slowing yet. Yen also rebounds following the greenback. Meanwhile Sterling and Canadian Dollar are the weakest ones for today for the moment.

Technically, focus will now be on near term resistance for the greenback. In particular, levels to watch include 1.1780 support in EUR/USD, 1.3730 support in GBP/USD, 0.7480 support in AUD/USD, and 1.2589 resistance in USD/CAD. Dollar will need to overcome these levels to confirm that it's resuming near term rally. Otherwise, the moves are just seen as another leg inside range patterns.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.09%. DAX is down -0.01%. CAC is down -0.09%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.002 at -0.295. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.52%. Hong Kong HSI rose 1.63%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.53%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.63%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0043 to 0.025.

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1838; (P) 1.1859; (R1) 1.1882; More...

EUR/USD dips notably in early US session, but stays above 1.1780 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, beak of 1.1894 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming at 1.1780. Corrective pattern from 1.2348 might have completed too. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.1974 resistance for confirmation. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 1.2265/2348 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 1.1780 will extend the correction to retest 1.1703 support instead.

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EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Forecast	Previous
23:01	GBP	BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales Y/Y Jun	6.70%	18.50%
01:30	AUD	NAB Business Confidence Jun	11	20
01:30	AUD	NAB Business Conditions Jun	24	37
03:00	CNY	Trade Balance (USD) Jun	51.5B	44.4B	45.5B
03:00	CNY	Exports (USD) Y/Y Jun	32.20%	23.10%	27.90%
03:00	CNY	Imports (USD) Y/Y Jun	36.70%	30.00%	51.10%
03:00	CNY	Trade Balance (CNY) Jun	333B	271B	296B
03:00	CNY	Exports (CNY) Y/Y Jun	20.20%	29.60%	18.10%
03:00	CNY	Imports (CNY) Y/Y Jun	24.20%	32.30%	39.50%
06:00	EUR	Germany CPI M/M Jun F	0.40%	0.40%	0.40%
06:00	EUR	Germany CPI Y/Y Jun F	2.30%	2.30%	2.30%
06:30	CHF	Producer and Import Prices M/M Jun	0.30%	0.40%	0.80%
06:30	CHF	Producer and Import Prices Y/Y Jun	2.90%	3.20%
06:45	EUR	France CPI M/M Jun F	0.20%	0.20%	0.20%
06:45	EUR	France CPI Y/Y Jun F	1.90%	1.90%	1.90%
10:00	USD	NFIB Business Optimism Index Jun	102.5	99.5	99.6
12:30	USD	CPI M/M Jun	0.90%	0.50%	0.60%
12:30	USD	CPI Y/Y Jun	5.40%	4.90%	5.00%
12:30	USD	CPI Core M/M Jun	0.90%	0.50%	0.70%
12:30	USD	CPI Core Y/Y Jun	4.50%	4.00%	3.80%