Markets Cautious But Not Panicked, Hope for US-EU Deal Remains
| Action Insight Mid-Day 7-14-25 |
Markets Cautious But Not Panicked, Hope for US-EU Deal Remains |
The reaction to US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff salvo has been relatively muted so far. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC opened mildly lower, but losses remain limited. In currency markets, Euro is holding steady, trading largely inside Friday’s ranges without triggering major downside momentum. The market appears to be bracing for drawn-out negotiations rather than immediate escalation. Optimism is underpinned by Trump’s negotiation history—often characterized by bold opening demands followed by compromise. The fact that the 30% tariff on EU imports is scheduled to take effect in August, not immediately, reinforces the view that space remains for a diplomatic resolution. The final rate will likely land well below 30%, even though above the UK's 10% benchmark. European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic warned Monday that the 30% tariff would severely disrupt transatlantic trade, but voiced hope that a resolution could still be achieved. “We have to do everything we can to prevent this super-negative scenario,” he said. Talks between the EU and Washington are ongoing, and the EU has not yet announced any retaliatory measures, which has helped temper market nerves...... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1665; (P) 1.1690; (R1) 1.1714; More... EUR/USD is still extending the correction from 1.1829 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Downside should be 1.1630 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.1829 will resume the rise from 1.0176 and target 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927. However, sustained break of 1.1630 will bring deeper fall to 55 D EMA (now at 1.1474) instead. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:30 | NZD | Business NZ PSI Jun | 47.3 | 44 | | 23:50 | JPY | Machinery Orders M/M May | -0.60% | -1.40% | -9.10% | | 03:00 | CNY | Trade Balance (USD) Jun | 114.8B | 113.2B | 103.2B | | 04:30 | JPY | Tertiary Industry Index M/M May | -0.10% | 0.10% | 0.30% | | 04:30 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M May F | 0.60% | 0.50% | 0.50% | | 06:30 | CHF | PPI M/M Jun | -0.10% | 0.20% | -0.50% | | 06:30 | CHF | PPI Y/Y Jun | -0.70% | -0.70% | | 12:30 | CAD | Wholesale Sales M/M May | 0.10% | -0.40% | -2.30% |
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