Markets Calm as US CPI Leaves Fed Outlook Unchanged, Yen Slides Continue
| Action Insight Mid-Day 7-15-25 |
Markets Calm as US CPI Leaves Fed Outlook Unchanged, Yen Slides Continue |
Markets shrugged off the latest US CPI release, with muted reactions across assets. While annual core inflation ticked slightly higher, the modest rise appears to be a relief for Fed and investors alike. Overall, the data does little to shift expectations around the Fed’s easing path. The July FOMC meeting remains firmly priced for a hold, with over 97% probability. As for September, futures imply around 60% odds of a rate cut. However, with US tariffs set to escalate from August 1 and trade talks still ongoing, there is considerable uncertainty over the coming weeks. In FX, the standout move is the continued weakness in Yen. The currency is under pressure as investors position cautiously ahead of this weekend’s upper house elections. Sharp gains in long-dated JGB yields reflect growing anxiety over future fiscal policies and deficit spending, regardless of the outcome. Elsewhere, the Dollar and Euro are also softer. Sterling and Swiss Franc are trading closer to the middle of the pack. Commodity currencies are outperforming, led by Kiwi and Aussie, followed by the Loonie..... |
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.13; (P) 147.46; (R1) 148.05; More... USD/JPY's breach of 148.01 resistance suggests that corrective pattern from 148.64 has completed with three waves to 142.66. Intraday bias is on the upside for 148.64 resistance first. Firm break there will confirm and target 100% projection of 139.87 to 148.64 from 142.66 at 151.43. That is close to 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22. On the downside, below 146.84 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral again first. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 00:30 | AUD | Westpac Consumer Confidence Jul | 0.60% | 0.50% | | 02:00 | CNY | GDP Y/Y Q2 | 5.20% | 5.10% | 5.40% | | 02:00 | CNY | Industrial Production Y/Y Jun | 6.80% | 5.60% | 5.80% | | 02:00 | CNY | Retail Sales Y/Y Jun | 4.80% | 5.20% | 6.40% | | 02:00 | CNY | Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) Y/Y Jun | 2.80% | 3.70% | 3.70% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial Production M/M May | 1.70% | 1.10% | -2.40% | -2.20% | | 09:00 | EUR | Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Jul | 52.7 | 50.2 | 47.5 | | 09:00 | EUR | Germany ZEW Current Situation Jul | -59.5 | -66 | -72 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Jul | 36.1 | 37.8 | 35.3 | | 12:30 | CAD | Manufacturing Sales M/M May | -0.90% | -1.30% | -2.80% | -2.70% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI M/M Jun | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.60% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Y/Y Jun | 1.90% | 1.90% | 1.70% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Median YY/Y Jun | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Trimmed Y/Y Jun | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Common Y/Y Jun | 2.60% | 2.70% | 2.60% | | 12:30 | USD | Empire State Manufacturing Index Jul | 5.5 | -10.1 | -16 | | 12:30 | USD | CPI M/M Jun | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Y/Y Jun | 2.70% | 2.70% | 2.40% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Core M/M Jun | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Core Y/Y Jun | 2.90% | 3.00% | 2.80% |
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