Dollar Holds Firm on Solid Data, Aussie Lags After Jobs Miss, Japan Steps Up Tariff Talks
| Action Insight Mid-Day 7-17-25 |
Dollar Holds Firm on Solid Data, Aussie Lags After Jobs Miss, Japan Steps Up Tariff Talks |
Dollar remains broadly firm in early US session after a round of stronger-than-expected data reaffirmed the resilience of the US economy. However, gains are being capped as traders digest lingering political risks, including uncertainty over the status of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and wait for further clarity from upcoming sentiment data. U.S. futures are flat, reflecting a more cautious tone across broader markets. The Powell firing speculation has temporarily faded, following President Trump's denial. Still, the issue could re-emerge at any moment, making it a latent risk for Dollar bulls. That’s prompting traders to hesitate before chasing the greenback higher despite the solid economic prints. Meanwhile, tomorrow's University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data will be closely watched for signs of how Trump’s renewed tariff campaign is starting to impact consumers. In FX rankings this week so far, Dollar is the top performer, followed by Loonie and Sterling. At the bottom end, Aussie has slumped following soft jobs data that prompted markets to price in a higher chance of an RBA rate cut in August. Kiwi and Swiss Franc are also underperforming, while Euro and Yen sit in the middle of the pack...... |
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.80; (P) 148.00; (R1) 149.08; More... Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 149.17. Downside should be contained by 55 D EMA (now at 145.56). Break of 149.17 will resume the whole rise from 139.87 to 100% projection of 139.87 to 148.64 from 142.66 at 151.43. That is close to 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | Trade Balance (JPY) Jun | -0.24T | -0.26T | -0.31T | -0.29T | | 01:00 | AUD | Consumer Inflation Expectations Jul | 4.70% | 5% | | 01:30 | AUD | Employment Change Jun | 2.0K | 21.0K | -2.5K | -1.1K | | 01:30 | AUD | Unemployment Rate Jun | 4.30% | 4.10% | 4.10% | | 06:00 | CHF | Trade Balance (CHF) Jun | 5.79B | 4.22B | 3.83B | 4.01B | | 06:00 | GBP | Claimant Count Change Jun | 25.9K | 17.9K | 33.1K | 15.3K | | 06:00 | GBP | ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) May | 4.70% | 4.60% | 4.60% | | 06:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Y May | 5.00% | 5.00% | 5.30% | 5.40% | | 06:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Y May | 5.00% | 4.90% | 5.20% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jun F | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Jun F | 2.30% | 2.30% | 2.30% | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 11) | 221K | 234K | 227K | 228K | | 12:30 | USD | Retail Sales M/M Jun | 0.60% | 0.20% | -0.90% | | 12:30 | USD | Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Jun | 0.50% | 0.30% | -0.30% | -0.20% | | 12:30 | USD | Import Price Index M/M Jun | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.00% | -0.40% | | 12:30 | USD | Philadelphia Fed Survey Jul | 15.9 | 0.4 | -4 | | 14:00 | USD | Business Inventories May | 0.20% | 0.00% | | 14:00 | USD | NAHB Housing Market Index Jul | 33 | 32 | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 44B | 53B |
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