Euro Slips After Weak PMI Data, Yen Extends Gains on BoJ Speculations

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-24-24

Euro Slips After Weak PMI Data, Yen Extends Gains on BoJ Speculations

Yen continues to dominate the forex markets today, with speculation heating up ahead of next week's BoJ meeting. According to a Reuters report, unnamed sources have confirmed that a rate hike will be debated at the meeting. However, the decision is expected to be a "close call," described as a "judgment call" on whether to "act now or later this year." It is also believed that BoJ will unveil a plan to roughly halve its bond purchases in the coming years, continuing its steady withdrawal from massive monetary stimulus.

Meanwhile, Euro is under pressure following disappointing PMI data, which showed significant deterioration in the manufacturing sector while services growth remained moderate only. This data should justify a September ECB rate cut, although inflation data might complicate further cuts beyond that. On the other hand, Sterling is supported by solid PMI figures, bolstering the stance of BoE hawks against a rate cut in August...

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EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 168.13; (P) 169.61; (R1) 170.38; More...

EUR/JPY's fall from 175.41 accelerates lower today and it's now pressing 38.2% retracement of 153.15 to 175.41 at 166.90. Some support could be seen from this fibonacci level, and break of 169.19 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. However, decisive break of 166.90 will pave the way to medium term channel support (now at 165.46).

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EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:00 AUD Manufacturing PMI Jul P 47.4 47.2
23:00 AUD Services PMI Jul P 50.8 51.2
00:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI Jul P 49.2 50.5 50
00:30 JPY Services PMI Jul P 53.9 49.4
06:00 EUR Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Aug -18.4 -21.1 -21.8 -21.6
07:15 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Jul P 44.1 45.9 45.4
07:15 EUR France Services PMI Jul P 50.7 49.7 49.6
07:30 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Jul P 42.6 44.5 43.5
07:30 EUR Germany Services PMI Jul P 52 53.5 53.1
08:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jul P 45.6 46.3 45.8
08:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Jul P 51.9 52.9 52.8
08:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Jul P 51.8 51.1 50.9
08:30 GBP Services PMI Jul P 52.4 52.5 52.1
12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Jun -0.20% 0.10% 0.20%
12:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (USD) Jun P -96.8B -98.0B -99.4B -99.4B
12:30 USD Wholesale Inventories Jun P 0.20% 0.50% 0.60%
13:45 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision 4.50% 4.75%
13:45 USD Manufacturing PMI Jul P 51.5 51.6
13:45 USD Services PMI Jul P 54.5 55.3
14:00 USD New Home Sales M/M Jun 643K 619K
14:30 CAD BoC Press Conference
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.6M -4.9M