Dollar Weakens Against European Majors Ahead of Key Economic and Political Events

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-3-24

Dollar Weakens Against European Majors Ahead of Key Economic and Political Events

Dollar weakens notably against European majors in early US session, partially due to worse-than-expected ADP private job data. However, the primary reason seems to be traders becoming cautious ahead of several key events this week, including UK general elections, US non-farm payroll report, and French parliamentary elections. Traders are also mindful of thinner markets tomorrow due to US July 4 holiday.

Some focus will shift to FOMC minutes due later in the session. June meeting's economic projections indicated a significant shift, with only one expected rate cut this year, compared to three projected in March. The debates behind this hawkish change, highlighted by 11 members favoring one or no cuts versus 8 members favoring two cuts, will be closely watched. Additionally, discussions about the raised long-term neutral rate will be analyzed for further insights...

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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2638; (P) 1.2663; (R1) 1.2710; More...

GBP/USD's rebound from 1.2612 resumes today and the break of 1.2705 resistance suggests that pull back from 1.2859 has completed. More importantly, rise from 1.2298 is not over. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 1.2859 high first. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.2612 support holds, in case of retreat.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
01:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M May 0.60% 0.30% 0.10%
01:30 AUD Building Permits M/M May 5.50% 1.60% -0.30% 1.90%
01:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI Jun 51.2 53.4 54
07:45 EUR Italy Services PMI Jun 53.7 53.9 54.2
07:50 EUR France Services PMI Jun F 49.6 48.8 48.8
07:55 EUR Germany Services PMI Jun F 53.1 53.5 53.5
08:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Jun F 52.8 52.6 52.6
08:30 GBP Services PMI Jun F 52.1 51.2 51.2
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M May -0.20% 0.00% -1.00%
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y May -4.20% -4.10% -5.70%
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jun 19.80% -20.30%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Jun 150K 158K 152K 157K
12:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) May -1.9B -0.8B -1.0B
12:30 USD Trade Balance (USD) May -75.1B -76.0B -74.6B
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 28) 238K 235K 233K 234K
13:45 USD Services PMI Jun F 55.1 55.1
14:00 USD ISM Services PMI Jun 52.5 53.8
14:00 USD Factory Orders M/M May 0.30% 0.70%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.4M 3.6M
16:00 USD Natural Gas Storage 29B 52B
18:00 USD FOMC Minutes