NFP Revisions Hits Dollar; But September Fed Cut Still Uncertain

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-5-24

NFP Revisions Hits Dollar; But September Fed Cut Still Uncertain

Dollar weakened broadly after the release of the US Non-Farm Payroll report, though the initial selloff was far from decisive. June's employment data showcased a robust labor market with near-average job and solid earnings growth , coupled with just a slight uptick in unemployment rate. However, significant downward revisions to April and May's job growth numbers (-111k) suggest the labor market may not be as robust as initially reported. These mixed signals add some weight to the argument for a Fed rate cut in September, but they are not conclusive enough to cement such expectations.

At the same time, Canadian Dollar faced pressure after weak employment data for June revealed contraction in jobs and a spike in the unemployment rate. Meanwhile, Sterling continues to ride high, maintaining broad firmness as political uncertainties clear up following the UK general elections, with Labour's landslide victory injected a sense of stability. Yen is attempting a recovery but lacks consistent buying momentum. Euro is mixed as traders look forward to French election runoff on Sunday...

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0791; (P) 1.0804; (R1) 1.0825; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 1.0665 is in progress to 1.0915 resistance first. Firm break there will resume whole rebound from 1.0601. Nevertheless, on the downside, below 1.0775 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y May -1.80% 0.20% 0.50%
05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index May P 111.1 111.1 110.9 0.10%
06:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production M/M May -2.50% 0.20% -0.10%
06:45 EUR France Trade Balance (EUR) May -8.0B -7.2B -7.6B
06:45 EUR Industrial Output M/M May -2.10% -0.20% 0.50% 0.60%
07:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Jun 711B 718B
08:00 EUR Italy Retail Sales M/M May 0.40% 0.20% -0.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M May 0.10% 0.20% -0.50%
12:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls Jun 206K 180K 272K 218K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Jun 4.10% 4.00% 4.00%
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M Jun 0.30% 0.30% 0.40%
12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Jun -1.4K 25.0K 26.7K
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Jun 6.40% 6.30% 6.20%
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Jun 53 52