Dollar Pauses as Markets Await FOMC Minutes, Overall Action Muted
| Action Insight Mid-Day 7-9-25 |
Dollar Pauses as Markets Await FOMC Minutes, Overall Action Muted |
Activity in the forex market cooled today as traders adopted a cautious stance ahead of June FOMC minutes. With no major surprises expected, the minutes are unlikely to shift current expectations for a Fed hold at the July 30 meeting. That baseline has been reinforced by the latest shift in trade war dynamics, after US President Donald Trump effectively pushed the tariff truce deadline back to August 1. The new deadline means Fed will be making its next rate decision before key developments on trade materialize, leaving the central bank in the dark on one of the most important macro variables. With clarity on tariffs likely delayed, Fed officials have even more reason to stick with their current wait-and-see approach. The FOMC minutes may still offer insight into how dovish policymakers like Governor Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman are positioning, but the broad tone is expected to remain cautious. On trade, Trump said Tuesday evening that at least seven new tariff letters would be issued Wednesday morning, with more to follow later in the day. He also indicated the EU would be informed of its specific tariff rate “probably” within two days, but added that Brussels had grown more cooperative in recent talks. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen maintained a guarded tone, reaffirming that the bloc is working in good faith to strike a deal but remains prepared for all scenarios. A Commission spokesperson said talks were advancing and a deal could potentially be reached before the August 1 deadline..... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1684; (P) 1.1724; (R1) 1.1766; More... EUR/USD's consolidation from 1.1829 is still extending and intraday bias stays neutral. Downside should be contained by 1.1630 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 1.1829 will resume the rise from 1.0176 and target 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | Money Supply M2+CD Y/Y Jun | 0.90% | 0.20% | 0.60% | | 01:30 | CNY | CPI Y/Y Jun | 0.10% | -0.10% | -0.10% | | 01:30 | CNY | PPI Y/Y Jun | -3.60% | -3.20% | -3.30% | | 02:00 | NZD | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 3.25% | 3.25% | 3.25% | | 06:00 | JPY | Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Jun | -0.50% | 3.40% | 3.40% | | 14:00 | USD | Wholesale Inventories May F | -0.30% | -0.30% | | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -1.7M | 3.8M | | 18:00 | USD | FOMC Minutes |
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