Sterling Jumps on Record Wages Growth, Gold Approaches Key Support

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-15-23

Sterling Jumps on Record Wages Growth, Gold Approaches Key Support

European major currencies are making a notable stride today, with Sterling at the forefront. The Pound ascent is attributed to the historic high recorded in UK regular wage growth. This surge adds further weight to BoE dilemma, pushing it to seriously consider additional monetary tightening in the upcoming month.

While Dollar is making efforts to recoup some of its recent losses, spurred by positive retail sales data surpassing expectations, its upward momentum is noticeably tepid. Canadian Dollar, despite higher than expected inflation figures, has largely been indifferent. This places it in tandem with Australian and New Zealand Dollars, both vying for the least impressive performance of the day. Floating somewhere in the midst, Japanese Yen presents a mixed bag—losing ground against Dollar and Europeans, yet holding its own versus commodity-linked currencies.

Technically, Gold is now approaching key support level at 1892.76 as the fall from 1987.22 extends. Strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 1920.74 minor resistance, will at least indicate some stabilization, with prospect for further rise back towards 1987.22 resistance. However, sustained break of 1892.76 will risk downside acceleration to 100% projection of 2062.95 to 1892.76 from 1987.22 at 1817.06. Under such a bearish scenario, this would likely serve as a green light for the Dollar to momentum, propelling it higher against other major rivals.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -1.20%. DAX is down -0.78%. CAC is down -0.88%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.0528 at 2.691. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.56%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -1.03%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.07%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.46%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0131 to 0.632.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2631; (P) 1.2673; (R1) 1.2729; More...

GBP/USD recovers notably today but stays below 1.2817 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, firm break of 1.2618, and sustained trading below 1.2678 resistance turned support will argue that it's already in a larger correction. Deeper decline would then be seen to 1.2306 support next. Nevertheless, break of 1.2817 minor resistance will indicate that the pull back has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q2 P 1.50% 0.80% 0.70%
23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q2 P 3.40% 3.80% 2.00%
01:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
01:30 AUD Wage Price Index Q/Q Q2 0.80% 1.00% 0.80%
02:00 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y Jul 3.70% 4.30% 4.40%
02:00 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y Jul 2.50% 4.20% 3.10%
02:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment YTD Y/Y Jul 3.40% 3.80% 3.80%
04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jun F 2.40% 2.00% 2.00%
06:00 GBP Claimant Count Change Jul 29.0K 19.6K 25.7K 16.2K
06:00 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Jun 4.20% 4.00% 4.00%
06:00 GBP Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Y Jun 8.20% 7.30% 6.90% 7.20%
06:00 GBP Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Y Jun 7.80% 7.40% 7.30% 7.50%
06:30 CHF Producer and Import Prices M/M Jul -0.10% 0.20% 0.00%
06:30 CHF Producer and Import Prices Y/Y Jul -0.60% -0.50% -0.60%
09:00 EUR Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Aug -12.3 -15 -14.7
09:00 EUR Germany ZEW Current Situation Aug -71.3 -63 -59.5
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Aug -5.5 -12 -12.2
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales M/M Jun -1.70% -2.10% 1.20%
12:30 CAD CPI M/M Jul 0.60% 0.30% 0.10%
12:30 CAD CPI Y/Y Jul 3.30% 3.00% 2.80%
12:30 CAD CPI Media Y/Y Jul 3.70% 3.70% 3.90%
12:30 CAD CPI Trimmed Y/Y Jul 3.60% 3.50% 3.70%
12:30 CAD CPI Common Y/Y Jul 4.80% 5.00% 5.10%
12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index Aug -19 -0.3 1.1
12:30 USD Retail Sales M/M Jul 0.70% 0.40% 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 USD Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Jul 1.00% 0.40% 0.20%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Jul 0.40% 0.20% -0.20%
14:00 USD Business Inventories Jun 0.20% 0.20%
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Aug 56 56