Risk Aversion Deepens as US Non-Farm Payrolls Fall Short of Expectations

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-2-24

Risk Aversion Deepens as US Non-Farm Payrolls Fall Short of Expectations

Risk aversion is intensifying in early US session after non-farm payroll report significantly missed expectations on all fronts. This follows yesterday's poor manufacturing data, which has already sparked discussions about a hard landing for the US economy. The weak job data is likely to fuel these concerns further, as stock futures are tumbling sharply, pointing to a notably lower open. In the financial markets, stock futures tumble sharply and are pointing to a sharply lower open. Meanwhile, 10-year yield is extending this week's steep decline and is set to challenge 3.8% mark.

Dollar's reaction to these developments has been complex. It continues to decline against safe-haven currencies such as Yen and the Swiss Franc. However, it remains steady against commodity currencies due to the offsetting impact of diving Treasury yields and prevailing risk-off sentiment. The greenback is holding onto most of its gains against Sterling for the week but is showing weakness against the euro, which is also surging against the Pound...

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.42; (P) 151.16; (R1) 152.72; More...

USD/JPY's steep decline from 161.94 reaccelerates to as low as 147.01 so far. There is no sign of bottoming yet and intraday bias stays on the downside. Next target is 140.25 fibonacci level. On the upside, above 150.88 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Jul 1.00% 0.90% 0.60%
01:30 AUD PPI Q/Q Q2 1.00% 1.00% 0.90%
01:30 AUD PPI Y/Y Q2 4.80% 4.30%
06:30 CHF CPI M/M Jul -0.20% -0.20% 0.00%
06:30 CHF CPI Y/Y Jul 1.30% 1.30% 1.30%
06:45 EUR France Industrial Output M/M Jun 0.80% 0.90% -2.10% -2.20%
07:30 CHF Manufacturing PMI Jul 43.5 44.6 43.9
08:00 EUR Italy Industrial Output M/M Jun 0.50% -0.20% 0.50%
09:00 EUR Italy Retail Sales M/M Jun -0.20% 0.20% 0.40%
12:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls Jul 114K 176K 206K 179K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Jul 4.30% 4.10% 4.10%
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M Jul 0.20% 0.30% 0.30%
14:00 USD Factory Orders M/M Jun 0.50% -0.50%