Market Treads Cautiously Ahead of Powell and Lagarde's Speeches

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-25-23

Market Treads Cautiously Ahead of Powell and Lagarde's Speeches

As the financial world gears up for the much-anticipated remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde, market participants are treading with caution. Dollar has started to retreat, shedding some of its recent impressive gains. Simultaneously, Euro grapples to find solid ground elsewhere amidst a mixed backdrop.

Both leading central bank figures hold the potential to introduce unexpected elements in their addresses, and market stakeholders are all too aware of the volatility this could trigger. The spotlight on Powell will shine particularly on his interpretation of the juxtaposed trends of softening headline inflation and the persistence of service sector prices. Additionally, the consequences of robust consumer spending will be keenly observed.

In the European context, the grapevine is abuzz with speculation. Following the recently revealed PMI data, which fell well short of market expectations, rumors are rife that Lagarde might hint at a monetary policy pause in September. Such a move, if communicated or even hinted at, could instigate significant market shifts as the week concludes.

Technically, to indicate a near term bearish reversal in Dollar, 1.0929 resistance in EUR/USD, 1.2799 resistance in GBP/USD, 0.8758 support in USD/CHF will need to be taken out decisively Meanwhile, for Dollar to confirm underlying bullish momentum, UUSD/JPY and USD/CD should break through 146.55 and 1.3602 resistance respectively with ease. The market awaits these developments with bated breath.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.66%. DAX is up 0.65%. CAC is up 0.88%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.0368 at 2.553. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -2.05%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -1.40%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.56%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.29%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0110 to 0.660.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.98; (P) 145.47; (R1) 146.34; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as it's still bounded in range. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 145.06 from 137.22 at 146.76 will pave the way to retest 151.93 high. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 144.52 support will be a sign of reversal, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 142.45).

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Y/Y Aug 2.90% 3.00% 3.20%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food Y/Y Aug 2.80% 2.90% 3.00%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food Energy Y/Y Aug 4.00% 4.00%
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Index Y/Y Jul 1.70% 1.20% 1.20% 1.40%
06:00 EUR Germany GDP Q/Q Q2 F 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
08:00 EUR Germany IFO Business Climate Aug 85.7 86.6 87.3 87.4
08:00 EUR Germany IFO Current Assessment Aug 89.0 89.8 91.3 91.4
08:00 EUR Germany IFO Expectations Aug 82.6 83.8 83.5 83.6
14:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Aug F 71.2 71.2