Euro Strikes Back on ECB Bets, Dollar Reversing Gains
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-29-22 |
Euro Strikes Back on ECB Bets, Dollar Reversing Gains |
Euro is staging a strong come back today, as supported by hawkish comments from ECB officials over the weekend. In short, a 50bps rate hike looks like that base case for ECB meeting next week, with some possibility of a 75bps hike. Dollar is reversing some gains in spite of risk-off sentiment. The clearer trend for now is the selloff in Yen on rising major Eurozone and US yields. This is followed by weakness in Sterling and Swiss Franc as triggered by selloff against Euro. Technically, breakouts are seen in some Euro pairs. For example, EUR/JPY breaks through 138.38 resistance to resume the rebound from 133.38. EUR/GBP breaks through 0.8510 resistance to resume the rise from 0.8338. EUR/CHF is also on the verge of breaking through 0.9698 resistance to confirm short term bottoming at 0.9550. The question is whether EUR/USD will follow with a break of 1.0094 minor resistance too to set up stronger rebound. In Europe, UK is on holiday. DAX is down -0.73%. CAC is down -1.15%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.092 at 1.482. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -2.66%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.73%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.14%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.84%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0220 to 0.243. |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9911; (P) 1.0000; (R1) 1.0053; More... EUR/USD recovers notably today but stays in established range above 0.9899. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.9899 will resume larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.0773 to 0.9951 from 1.0368 at 0.9860. Firm break there should prompt downside acceleration to 100% projection at 0.9546. However, firm break of 1.0094 minor resistance will dampen this bearish view, and turn bias back to the upside for 1.0368 resistance instead. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
|---|
| 01:30 | AUD | Retail Sales M/M Jul | 1.30% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
|
|
|
