Dollar Slumps on ADP Miss, Gold Extending Rally

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-30-23

Dollar Slumps on ADP Miss, Gold Extending Rally

Dollar is facing accelerated selloff following the release of disappointing ADP private employment data, which showed deceleration in both job and pay growth. Although the employment numbers were by no means dismal, the cooling job market is being perceived as a positive development by Fed and market participants. This perception stems from the notion that slower job market could potentially ease the need for further monetary tightening. Subsequently, benchmark US Treasury yields tumble, indicating reduced expectations for more interest rate hikes.

As Dollar weakens, a fierce competition is shaping up among other major currencies, notably Euro, Sterling, Aussie, and Kiwi. Currently, Australian dollar has an edge, but Euro could mount a challenge, especially as the market anticipates Eurozone CPI flash report due tomorrow. The data will likely serve as a critical test for the common currency's resilience.

From a technical standpoint, Gold is capitalizing on Dollar's weakness. The precious metal's rally from 1884.84 extends further today. Immediate attention is now on the trend line resistance, currently situated at 1948.07. Sustained break above this level would bolster the argument that entire correction from 2062.95 has concluded with a three-wave drop down to 1884.83. Further rally would then be seen to 1987.22 resistance for confirmation. For now, further rise will remain in favor as long as 1923.19 minor support holds, in case of retreat.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.35%. DAX is down -0.06%. CAC is up 0.14%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.029 at 2.541. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.33%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.01%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.04%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.09%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0093 to 0.656.

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0810; (P) 1.0851; (R1) 1.0920; More...

Immediate focus is now on 1.0929 resistance in EUR/USD. Firm break there will argue that the corrective fall from 1.1274 has completed with three waves down to 1.0764. Further rally would then be seen to 1.1064 resistance for confirmation. Meanwhile, rejection by 1.0929 will retain near term bearishness. Break of 1.0764 will resume the decline to 1.0609/34 cluster support next.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Jul -5.20% 3.50% 3.40%
01:30 AUD Monthly CPI Y/Y Jul 4.90% 5.20% 5.40%
01:30 AUD Building Permits M/M Jul -8.10% -0.50% -7.70% -7.90%
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index Aug 36.2 37.5 37.1
06:00 EUR Germany Import Price Index M/M Jul -0.60% -0.20% -1.60%
07:00 CHF KOF Economic Barometer Aug 91.1 91.3 92.2 92.1
08:00 CHF Credit Suisse Economic Expectations Aug -38.6 -32.6
08:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator Aug 93.3 93.9 94.5
08:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Aug -10.3 -9.8 -9.4 -9.3
08:00 EUR Eurozone Services Sentiment Aug 3.9 4.2 5.7 5.4
08:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Aug F -16 -16 -16
08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Jul 49K 52K 55K
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Jul -0.50% 0.10% -0.10%
12:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Aug P 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%
12:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Aug P 6.10% 6.00% 6.20%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Aug 177K 205K 324K 371K
12:30 USD GDP Annualized Q2 P 2.10% 2.40% 2.40%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q2 P 2.00% 2.20% 2.20%
12:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (USD) Jul P -91.2B -90.0B -87.8B
12:30 USD Wholesale Inventories Jul P -0.10% 0.20% -0.50%
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Jul -0.40% 0.30%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.2M -6.1M