Sterling Falls as BoE Forecasts Prolonged Recession
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-4-22

Sterling Falls as BoE Forecasts Prolonged Recession

Sterling falls broadly today after BoE hikes by 50bps but indicates that a prolonged recession will start in the UK in Q4. But the selloff in the Pound is not helping Euro and Swiss Franc much, as both are mixed. Dollar and Canadian are following Sterling as next weakest. Meanwhile, Yen is leading Aussie and Kiwi higher.

Technically, EUR/GBP's break of 0.8414 minor resistance suggests short term bottoming at 0.8338 and stronger recovery could be seen. But to solidify Sterling's weakness, GBP/USD will need to break through 1.2062 minor support. GBP/CHF will also need to break through 1.1525 low. Otherwise, bearishness in not confirmed.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.49%. DAX is up 1.08%. CAC is up 0.78%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.075 at 0.803. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.69%. Hong Kong HSI rose 2.06%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.80%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.55%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0143 to 0.175.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2096; (P) 1.2152; (R1) 1.2203; More...

GBP/USD is still staying above 1.2062 minor support despite today's dip. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 1.2062 minor support will argue that the rebound from 1.1759 is over, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.1759 low. On the upside, above 1.2292 will resume the rebound to 1.2405 resistance.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Jun 17.67B 14.00B 15.97B 15.02B
06:00 EUR Germany Factory Orders M/M Jun -0.40% -0.70% 0.10% -0.20%
08:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
08:30 GBP Construction PMI Jul 48.9 52.1 52.6
11:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 1.75% 1.75% 1.25%
11:00 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 9--0--0 9--0--0 9--0--0
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jul 36.30% 58.80%
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Jun -1.50% -2.00% 2.30%
12:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Jun 5.05B 5.0B 5.3B
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 29) 260K 250K 256K 254K
12:30 USD Goods and Services Trade Balance (USD) Jun -79.6B -81.5B -85.5B -84.9B
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 25B 15B