Euro Stumbles on Dovish ECB Hike, Dollar Rides on Strong Data

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-14-23

Euro Stumbles on Dovish ECB Hike, Dollar Rides on Strong Data

In a twist of events today, Euro takes a considerable hit following ECB's dovish rate hike which communicated a possibly peak in the tightening cycle. The downgrading of core CPI and GDP growth forecasts for the coming years - 2024 and 2025 - further aggravates the descent. This bearish sentiment spills over to Sterling and Swiss Franc, painting a subdued picture for European majors across the board.

In a contrasting scenario, Dollar exhibits a spirited performance, leveraging off the back of a stream of encouraging economic data releases. US retail sales and PPI figures emerged strong, coupled with data pointing to a hearty employment market echoed by jobless claims report. Despite this upbeat tide, Dollar finds itself outshone slightly by Australian and Canadian dollars in the financial market space.

Aussie Dollar is seen deriving some backing from China's decision to cut RRR, a move aiming to inject liquidity and stimulate economic activity. On another front, Canadian dollar rise on the rally observed in WTI oil, which notably surges past 90 handle.

Technically, as the greenback is rallying against European majors, the focus is on whether buying momentum could continue. In particular, EUR/USD and GBP/USD will have to sustain below 1.0685 and 1.2432 temporary lows. USD/CHF will also have to sustain above 0.8951 temporary high. Otherwise, the greenback will be back to square one.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 1.04%. DAX is up 0.34%. CAC is up 0.49%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.070 at 2.584. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 1.41%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.21%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.11%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.95%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0013 to 0.709.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0706; (P) 1.0735; (R1) 1.0760; More...

EUR/USD's fall from 1.1274 resumed by breaking through 1.0685 temporary low today. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.0609/34 cluster support zone next. On the upside, break of 1.0767 resistance will now indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 1.0944 resistance next.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Machinery Orders M/M Jul -1.10% -0.70% 2.70%
01:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations Sep 4.60% 4.90%
01:30 AUD Employment Change Aug 64.9K 24.3K -14.6K
01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Aug 3.70% 3.70% 3.70%
04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jul F -1.80% -2.00% -2.00%
06:30 CHF Producer and Import Prices M/M Aug -0.20% 0.10% -0.10%
06:30 CHF Producer and Import Prices Y/Y Aug -0.80% -0.60%
12:15 EUR ECB Main Refinancing Rate 4.50% 4.25% 4.25%
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Jul 0.20% -2.00% -2.80% -2.10%
12:30 USD Retail Sales M/M Aug 0.60% 0.20% 0.70% 0.50%
12:30 USD Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Aug 0.60% 0.40% 1.00% 0.70%
12:30 USD PPI M/M Aug 0.70% 0.40% 0.30% 0.40%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Aug 1.60% 1.20% 0.80%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Aug 0.60% 0.20% 0.30% 0.50%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Aug 2.20% 2.20% 2.40%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 8) 220K 229K 216K 217K
12:45 EUR ECB Press Conference
14:00 USD Business Inventories Jul 0.10% 0.00%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 51B 33B