US Inflation Data Fuels More Risk-On Rally, Yen Surges After Ishiba’s LDP Leadership Win

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-27-24

US Inflation Data Fuels More Risk-On Rally, Yen Surges After Ishiba’s LDP Leadership Win

Risk-on sentiment returned to global markets again in early US trading, driven by lower-than-expected inflation data. While annual PCE core inflation edged up to 2.7%, the monthly increase was a modest 0.1%. This tamer inflation growth suggests that underlying price pressures would, at least, not obstruct Fed's to another aggressive rate cut at its next meeting. However, upcoming non-farm payrolls and CPI data will still play a decisive role in Fed’s final decision.

In Japan, Yen staged a sharp turnaround after Shigeru Ishiba unexpectedly secured leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, setting him on the path to become the next Prime Minister. Known for his hawkish monetary stance, Ishiba's ascent has intensified speculation that BoJ may implement another rate hike in December. However, the political landscape remains uncertain. There is a possibility that Ishiba may call for a snap general election to secure a stronger mandate from voters, and that could delay any BoJ action until 2025....

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.21; (P) 144.71; (R1) 145.31; More...

USD/JPY's break of 142.89 minor support suggests that recovery fro 139.57 has completed at 146.48 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 139.57 low. Strong support is still expected from 139.26 to contain downside to bring another rebound. But decisive break there will carry larger bearish implications. On the upside, above 146.48 will resume the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 148.11.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Y/Y Sep 2.20% 2.60%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Sep 2.00% 2.00% 2.40%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core-Core Y/Y Sep 1.60% 1.60%
06:45 EUR France Consumer Spending M/M Aug 0.20% -0.10% 0.30% 0.20%
07:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate Sep 6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
07:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Change Sep 17K 9K 2K
09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Sentiment Sep 96.2 96.5 96.6 96.5
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Sep -10.9 -9.8 -9.7 -9.9
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Sentiment Sep 6.7 5.6 6.3 6.4
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Sep F -12.9 -12.9 -12.9
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Jul 0.20% 0.10% 0.00%
12:30 USD Personal Income M/M Aug 0.20% 0.40% 0.30%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Aug 0.20% 0.30% 0.50%
12:30 USD PCE Price Index M/M Aug 0.10% 0.10% 0.20%
12:30 USD PCE Price Index Y/Y Aug 2.20% 2.30% 2.50%
12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index M/M Aug 0.10% 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Aug 2.70% 2.70% 2.60%
12:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (USD) Aug P -94.3B -100.6B -102.7B
12:30 USD Wholesale Inventories Aug P 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
14:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Sep F 69 69