Dollar Turning Into Consolidation, US Yields Outshone by Europeans

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-28-23

Dollar Turning Into Consolidation, US Yields Outshone by Europeans

Dollar is experiencing a broad retreat today, reflecting a phase of consolidation after its notable advancements in the recent days. Market participants are seemingly recalibrating their positions, with the closure of the month in sight and in anticipation of pivotal economic data slated for release next week.

While the rise in US 10-year yield continues to extend its robust performance, it finds itself overshadowed by surges in Germany and UK yields. Further consolidation in Dollar might be observed before the week concludes, although this trend remains highly sensitive to ongoing risk developments globally.

For now, Australian Dollar and Sterling emerge as frontrunners for today, with New Zealand Dollar tailing closely. In contrast, Canadian Dollar is bearing the brunt of the pullback, only outdone by US Dollar itself. Yen is also on the weaker side, while Euro and Swiss Franc are delivering mixed performance.

Technically, EUR/GBP is now eyeing 0.8629 resistance turned support. Firm break there should bring deeper decline back to 0.8568. More importantly, confirmed rejection by 0.8700 resistance will retain medium term bearishness in the cross. That would open the way for deeper fall through 0.8491 low to resume larger down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high).

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.31%. DAX is up 0.10%. CAC is up 0.28%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.0953 at 2.939. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -1.54%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -1.36%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.10%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.22%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0212 to 0.761.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2108; (P) 1.2138; (R1) 1.2164; More...

A temporary low should be in place at 1.2109 in GBP/USD and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidations could be seen, and stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But near term risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2618 support turned resistance holds,. On the downside, decisive break of 1.2075 fibonacci level would carry larger bearish implication and target 1.1801 support next.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
00:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence Sep 1.5 -3.7
01:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Aug 0.20% 0.30% 0.50%
08:00 EUR ECB conomic Bulletin
09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator Sep 93.3 92.5 93.3 93.6
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Sep -9 -10.5 -10.3 -9.9
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Sentiment Sep 4 3.5 3.9 4.3
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Sep F -17.8 -17.8 -17.8
12:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Sep P 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%
12:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Sep P 4.50% 4.60% 6.10%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 22) 204K 200K 201K 202K
12:30 USD GDP Annualized Q2 F 2.10% 2.10% 2.10%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q2 F 1.70% 2.00% 2.00%
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Aug 0.20% 0.90%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 90B 64B