Dollar Lifted Mildly by Core PCE Reading, Euro Losing Momentum

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-30-22

Dollar Lifted Mildly by Core PCE Reading, Euro Losing Momentum

Dollar is lifted mildly after stronger than expected core PCE inflation reading. But overall markets are relatively quite in quarter-end trading. Sterling is still keeping its place as the strongest one for the week, but rebound appears to be losing some momentum. Euro is following as second, and then Swiss Franc. Yen is among the worst performers with commodity currencies. The question is whether risk aversion could give Dollar and Yen a lift in the final hours.

Technically, Euro's rebound is also momentum as seen in both EUR/USD and EUR/JPY. There's just isn't enough follow through buying to push the pairs through 0.9863 and 142.28 resistance respectively. Rejection by these levels, followed by a reversal, will keep near term outlook bearish for another fall through this week's lows, at a later stage.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.15%. DAX is up 0.27%. CAC is up 0.38%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.089 at 2.089. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -1.83%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.33%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.55%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.49%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0074 to 0.252.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9694; (P) 0.9755; (R1) 0.9874; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point, and outlook stays bearish with 0.9863 support turned resistance intact. Break of 0.9634 will suggest that larger down trend is ready to resume. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 0.9534 and below. However, sustained break of 0.9863 will confirm short term bottoming, and bring stronger rally back to 1.0197 resistance instead.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Aug -1.60% 5.00% 4.90%
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Aug 2.50% 2.50% 2.60%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Aug P 2.70% -0.20% 0.80%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Aug 4.10% 2.80% 2.40%
01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M Aug 0.80% 0.80% 0.70% 0.80%
01:30 CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI Sep 50.1 49.2 49.4
01:30 CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI Sep 50.6 52 52.6
01:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI Sep 48.1 49.9 49.5
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Aug 4.60% -4.10% -5.40%
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index Sep 30.8 33.6 32.5
06:00 GBP GDP Q/Q Q2 F 0.20% -0.10% -0.10%
06:00 GBP Current Account (GBP) Q2 -33.8B -43.9B -51.7B -43.9B
06:30 CHF Real Retail Sales Y/Y Aug 3.00% 2.80% 2.60%
06:45 EUR France Consumer Spending M/M Aug 0.00% 0.00% -0.80%
07:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Sep 93.8 86.2 86.5 93.5
07:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Change Sep 14K 20K 28K
07:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate Sep 5.50% 5.50% 5.50%
08:00 EUR Italy Unemployment Aug 7.80% 7.90% 7.90%
08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Aug 74K 63K 64K
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Aug -0.20% 0.50% 0.50%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Aug 6.60% 6.60% 6.60%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Sep P 10.00% 9.10% 9.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Sep P 4.80% 4.70% 4.30%
12:30 USD Personal Income M/M Aug 0.30% 0.30% 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Aug 0.40% 0.20% 0.10% -0.20%
12:30 USD PCE Price Index M/M Aug 0.30% 0.30% -0.10%
12:30 USD PCE Price Index Y/Y Aug 6.20% 6.60% 6.30% 6.40%
12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index M/M Aug 0.60% 0.50% 0.10% 0.00%
12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Aug 4.90% 4.70% 4.60% 4.70%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Sep 51.9 52.2
14:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Sep F 59.5 59.5