NFP Viewed as Dovish but Not Disastrous, Dollar Declines

Action Insight Daily Report 9-6-24

NFP Viewed as Dovish but Not Disastrous, Dollar Declines

The August US non-farm payroll report has been interpreted as largely dovish by the markets. Job growth showed clear signs of slowing, but the slight decrease in the unemployment rate has helped ease immediate recession fears. As a result, market expectations for a 50 bps rate cut by Fed this month have now risen above 50%. Dollar is broadly sold off in response, and 10-year Treasury has a notable decline.

Nevertheless, while the data points to a cooling labor market, it wasn't severe enough to suggest a sharp economic downturn. Hence, the drop in US stock futures has been mild, indicating that investor sentiment remains cautious but not overly negative. There is indeed prospect of a strong bounce in major stock indexes during the rest of the session.

As the week comes to a close, Japanese Yen has solidified its position as the strongest performer. It is likely to maintain its lead unless US yields stage a sharp rebound. Swiss Franc is the second strongest, slightly outperforming the Euro....

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8419; (P) 0.8455; (R1) 0.8476; More

USD/CHF's fall from 0.9223 resumed by breaching 0.8399 support. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.8332 low. decisive break there will indicate larger down trend resumption. However, break of 0.8536 resistance will now confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.8747 resistance.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Overall Household Spending Y/Y Jul 0.10% 1.20% -1.40%
05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index Jul P 109.5 109.4 109
06:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production sM/M Jul -2.40% -0.20% 1.40%
06:00 EUR Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Jul 16.8B 21.2B 20.4B
06:45 EUR France Trade Balance (EUR) Jul -5.9B -5.7B -6.1B
06:45 EUR France Industrial Output M/M Jul -0.50% -0.20% 0.80% -6.0B
07:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Aug 694B 704B
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 0.20% 0.30% 0.30%
12:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls Aug 142K 163K 114K 89K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Aug 4.20% 4.20% 4.30%
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M Aug 0.40% 0.30% 0.20% -0.10%
12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Aug 22.1K 25.0K -2.8K
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Aug 6.60% 6.50% 6.40%
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Aug 55.3 57.6