Sterling in Distress Following BoE Survey, Euro and Franc also Soften

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-7-23

Sterling in Distress Following BoE Survey, Euro and Franc also Soften

Sterling is under pronounced pressure in forex markets, trailing as the day's worst performer. This wave of selloff initiated yesterday following BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's articulation to the parliament, hinting that UK is "much nearer" to hitting the terminal interest rates. Further aggravating the downfall, a BoE survey rolled out today unveiled a stark decline in businesses' on-year inflation expectations, thus spotlighting intensified speculation over the path of BoE's tightening. Euro and Swiss Franc are also caught in this downward spiral, but slightly not as drastically as Sterling.

Contrary to European currencies, commodity currencies are witnessing a tepid recovery. But Australian and New Zealand Dollars remain unmoved from their positions as the weakest players of the week. Dollar retains its ground, drawing support from an encouraging jobless claims data release, while sustained buying momentum seems reserved primarily against European majors. Meanwhile, Yen is on recover, as part of near term consolidations.

Technically, GBP/JPY's correction from 186.75 looks ready to extend lower with break of near term trend line support. Sustained trading below 183.51 support would target 55 D EMA (now at 182.16). A rebound might occur at this juncture, at least on the first attempt.

But look further ahead, there's a tangible possibility that GBP/JPY's decline from 186.75 represents a larger-scale correction to the uptrend from 155.33. The impending two weeks are critical, as employment and inflation data could essentially steer the dynamics, serving as precursors to BoE rate decision on September 21. Sustained break of 55 D EMA could pave the way to 176.29.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.03%. DAX is down -0.42%. CAC is down -0.18%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.0398 at 2.617. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -0.75%. Hong Kong HSI fell -1.34%. China Shanghai SSE declined -1.13%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.12%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0021 to 0.658.

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2463; (P) 1.2526; (R1) 1.2569; More...

GBP/USD's decline continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside. Current fall from 1.3141 should target 100% projection of 1.3141 to 1.2618 from 1.2799 at 1.2276. On the upside, above 1.2546 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2799 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Manufacturing Sales Q2 0.20% -2.80% -2.50%
01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Jul 8.04B 10.05B 11.32B 10.27B
03:00 CNY Trade Balance (USD) Aug 68.4B 68.0B 80.6B
03:00 CNY Trade Balance (CNY) Aug 488B 494B 576B
05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index Jul P 107.6 107.9 109.1
05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Aug 2.10% 2.10% 2.10%
06:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production M/M Jul -0.80% -0.40% -1.50%
06:45 EUR France Trade Balance (EUR) Jul -8.1B -6.8B -6.7B -6.8B
07:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Aug 694B 698B
08:00 EUR Italy Retail Sales M/M Jul 0.40% 0.20% -0.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 0.10% 0.30% 0.30%
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Jul -1.50% 7.50% 6.10%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 1) 216K 235K 228K
12:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity Q2 3.50% 3.50% 3.70%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q2 2.20% 1.80% 1.60%
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Aug 49.2 48.6
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 38B 32B
15:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.8M -10.6M