Dollar at Risk of Extended Correction as Election Volatility Fades

Action Insight Weekly Report 11-10-24
Dollar at Risk of Extended Correction as Election Volatility Fades

Significant volatility was seen in the global financial markets last week, driven by the highly anticipated US presidential election. Contrary to expectations of a tight contest, Donald Trump secured a comfortable victory over Kamala Harris, with the Republican Party also achieving a "Red Sweep" by taking control of both the Senate and the House. This political outcome ignited optimism in US equity markets, propelling major indices, including even NASDAQ, to new record highs.

However, Dollar struggled to maintain its post-election momentum. Despite initial gains, Dollar's rally was capped by a retreat in Treasury yields. If these post-election trends persist, there is prospect of further correction for Dollar in the near term, especially if Treasury yields continue to soften.

Global markets did not uniformly share the US's optimism. In Europe, Euro ended the week as the worst-performing currency, along with declines in major stock indexes, Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40. Concerns over "Trade War 2.0" with the US under Trump's leadership weighed on European investor sentiment. The Swiss Franc was the second weakest currency, while Dollar ranked as the third weakest performer for the week, highlighting the greenback's relative underperformance.

Conversely, risk-on sentiment boosted commodity-linked currencies. Australian Dollar emerged as the top performer. However, questions linger about the longevity of this momentum, particularly after China's announcement of lackluster stimulus measures that fell short of market expectations. Canadian Dollar was the second-best performer, and Yen secured the third spot. Sterling and New Zealand Dollar settled in middle positions.

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GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD edged lower to 12833 last week but quickly settled back into established range. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further decline is expected 1.3047 resistance holds. Break of 1.382 will resume the fall from 1.3433 to 61.8% retracement of 1.2298 to 1.3433 at 1.2732. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.3047 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

Recommended Readings

Markets Weekly Outlook – Attention Shifts Back to Data, US CPI in Focus

The Weekly Bottom Line: Trump Victory Likely to Bring Big Policy Changes

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Higher Rates Likely Under Trump Administration

U.S. Inflation Still Running Above Fed’s Target in October

Week Ahead – US CPI to Shift Market Focus Back to Data After Trump Shock

Weekly Focus – Stronger Dollar and Higher Yields After Trump Victory

Cliff Notes: An Event-Filled Week

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