Euro Dived on Dovish ECB and Lockdown Fears, More Downside Risks ahead
Action Insight Weekly Report 11-20-21
Euro Dived on Dovish ECB and Lockdown Fears, More Downside Risks ahead

Euro tumbled broadly and deeply last week, and ended as the run away worst performer. It's firstly weighed down by dovish comments from ECB officials, who talked down the need for policy action to counter inflation. More importantly worries grew after Austria returned to full lockdown.

Daily new COVID-19 infections in Austria jump to 15k level, comparing to less than 10k in the first wave back in November last year. Daily deaths in Austria also rose back to above 50. The concern is that Germany, with daily infection at around 60k comparing to 30k in prior peaks, could follow soon. There is much downside risks, technically and fundamentally, for the Euro going ahead.

In other parts of the currency markets, Australian Dollar ended as the second weakest, followed by Swiss Franc. Sterling was the strongest one as strong inflation reading continued to push expectations of a imminent BoE rate hike. Dollar was the second strongest but Yen also regained some spotlight as overall risk markets turned mixed.

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EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EU/JPY's decline from 133.44 accelerated to as low as 127.96 last week and there is no clear sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 127.91 first. Break there will target 126.58 medium term fibonacci level next. On the upside, break of 129.97 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, further fall will remain in favor in case of recovery.

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