Central Bankers Work to Recast Rate Expectations, Yet Market Optimism Remains Unwavering

Action Insight Weekly Report 2-10-24
Central Bankers Work to Recast Rate Expectations, Yet Market Optimism Remains Unwavering

Last week's financial markets were characterized by a mix of resilience, speculation, and divergent central bank signals.

In the US, the narrative remained steadfast with Fed officials emphasizing a patient approach towards monetary policy, firmly pushing back against the market's eager anticipations for imminent rate cuts. This cautious did little to dampen the spirits of investors, who propelled S&P 500 past the landmark 5000 level for the first time, a testament to the enduring optimism surrounding US economy's resilience.

The ascent of S&P 500 was coupled with slight uptick in 10-year yield. While Dollar Index made strides, reflecting some progress, the greenback's performance was notably middling when juxtaposed with its global counterparts.

In Europe, Swiss Franc bore the brunt of the market's recalibrations, finding itself at the bottom of the performance ladder. This position was influenced by similar cautionary messages from ECB and BoE regarding premature rate cut expectations. Nevertheless, Euro and Sterling ended the week on a slightly softer note against others.

Over to Asia, Japan presented a contrasting scenario, where a top BoJ official attempted to moderate expectations for aggressive policy tightening. This effort led to widespread sell-off in Yen, positioning it as the week's second weakest. But at the time same, Nikkei also soared to new 34-year highs, buoyed by anticipation of continued loose monetary policy.

Commodity currencies emerged as the clear frontrunner amidst this global backdrop. New Zealand Dollar, in particular, stood out, riding high on the wave of speculation that RBNZ would implement further rate hikes. Australian Dollar, while also firming, trailed in the wake of RBA's noncommittal stance on future rate adjustments. Canadian Dollar, despite a fleeting post-employment data rally, settled into the third spot.

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EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF's rebound last week suggests that pull back from 0.9471 has completed at 0.9304 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 0.9471. Firm break there will resume whole rebound from 0.9252 to 100% projection of 0.9252 to 0.9471 from 0.9304 at 0.9523. On the downside, below 0.9395 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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