Dollar’s Wild Week Ends in Uncertainty, Awaits Next Tariff Cue

Action Insight Weekly Report 2-8-24
Dollar’s Wild Week Ends in Uncertainty, Awaits Next Tariff Cue

Dollar faced significant volatility last week as shifting trade policy signals from the White House left investors scrambling for clarity. Initially, tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports were imposed, only to be quickly suspended for 30 days following new agreements on border security and fentanyl control. Now, the focus turns to “reciprocal tariffs,” a move that could see the US impose duties equivalent to those faced by American exports in key markets.

While traders hope for clarity once the reciprocal tariffs are officially announced, the risk of another abrupt reversal remains high. The unpredictability of the administration’s trade stance, particularly regarding its approach toward key partners like the European Union, suggests continued volatility in currency markets. Until the full scope of Trump’s trade strategy is revealed, market sentiment is likely to remain fragile, with investors hesitant to commit to a firm direction.

Amid these confusions, Yen stood out as the strongest performer, supported by positive economic data that reinforced expectations of further BoJ rate hikes. Canadian Dollar followed behind, benefiting from a temporary tariff reprieve and stronger-than-expected employment report. Meanwhile, Australian and New Zealand Dollars managed to recover some ground, but their gains were limited by the continued US tariffs on Chinese goods and the lack of any progress in US-China trade negotiations.

On the weaker side, Euro was the worst-performing currency, struggling under the weight of tariff threats. Despite its late-week bounce, Dollar ended the week near the bottom of the performance rankings. British Pound also weakened after the BoE delivered a surprisingly dovish rate cut, while the Swiss Franc was also soft....

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USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD spiked higher to 1.4791 last week but reversed sharply from there. Nevertheless, downside is contained by 1.4260 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3418 to 1.4791 at 1.4267), which is also close to 55 D EMA (now at 1.4264). There is no sign of reversal yet. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.4501 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound. Larger up trend is expected to resume through 1.4791 at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.4260 will indicate that deeper correction is underway.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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