Dollar Rises on Fed Reassessment, But Reversal Pending Confirmation

Action Insight Weekly Report 3-16-24
Dollar Rises on Fed Reassessment, But Reversal Pending Confirmation

Dollar ended the week as the strongest currency, boosted by the fresh round of inflation data that led markets to reassess expectations around Fed's rate cuts. This recalibration was also marked a pronounced rebound in treasury yields and a notably cautious sentiment pervading the stock market. Despite this rally, Dollar remained confined within the previous week's range against its major counterparts, suggesting that a clear directional shift is still pending confirmation.

On the other hand, Yen and New Zealand Dollar found themselves at the lower end of the performance spectrum. In Japan, positive outcomes from wage negotiations have seemingly paved the way for a much-anticipated BoJ rate hike. Yet, market participants remain divided on whether BoJ will act in its next meeting on Tuesday or opt for a rate adjustment in April. Meanwhile, Kiwi faced downward pressure following remarks from New Zealand's Finance Minister, which painted a grim picture of the economic outlook and fueled speculation about an earlier rate cut by RBNZ.

In other parts of the currency market, Canadian Dollar and Euro trailed behind the greenback as the second and third strongest currencies, respectively. Australian Dollar was positioned as the third weakest, while Sterling and Swiss Franc were mixed in the middle. It's important to note, however, that the currency landscape could be significantly reshaped in the coming week, as a series of central bank meetings—including those of BoJ, RBA, Fed, SNB, and BoE—are on the horizon.

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USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF's strong rebound last week suggests that consolidation from 0.8884 has completed with three waves to 0.8728. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside this week for retesting 0.8891 resistance first. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 0.8332. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.8934. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.8728 support holds, in case of retreat.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Weekly Focus – Will SNB Lead the Way in Cutting Cycle?

Week Ahead – Five Central Banks: Who Will Hike, Who Will Not Cut?

RBA Could Maintain a Degree of Hawkishness

Will Canada's CPI Data Rescue the Wounded Loonie?

Fed Decision: Will the New 'Dot Plot' Boost Dollar?

Looking Beyond the Horizon

Cliff Notes: Fading Inflation Risks

Will BoJ Take Interest Rates Out of Negative Territory?

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