Yen Overwhelmed Dollar on Falling Benchmark Yields
Action Insight Weekly Report 7-30-22
Yield Curve Inversion and Recession Risks, Dollar the Worst Performer of the Week

Dollar ended broadly lower last week, as the worst performer, as hammered by the events of FOMC meeting and GDP release. In short, Fed chair has signalled slower tightening pace ahead and the message was reinforced by another quarterly GDP contraction print. Whether the US was already in recession or not, Fed is turning from an auto-pilot mode to a data-dependent mode, after interest rate reached neutral range.

Euro hasn't been able to capitalize on Dollar's selloff, and ended as the second worst. Europe has it own problem of continuing war in Ukraine, inflation, and additional threat of Russia gas supply crunch. Yen was the winner responding to fall of major global benchmark yield. Sterling and Swiss Franc were the next strongest, as supported by buying against Euro. Commodity currencies were mixed, as partly supported by risk-on sentiment.

Full Report Here

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY's decline from 139.37 accelerated lower last week. The development suggest that a medium term was already formed on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 131.34 resistance turned and below. But strong support is expected above 126.35 to contain downside, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 135.55 will bring stronger rise back to retest 139.37 high instead.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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