Fed Might Cut Just Once More in Mid-Cycle Adjustment as Sentiments Improved
Action Insight Weekly Report 9-15-19
Fed Might Cut Just Once More in Mid-Cycle Adjustment as Sentiments Improved

Threat of US-China trade war escalation receded last week after both sides offered some concessions. Further than that, there is increasing hope of de-escalation of some form as the idea of an "interim" trade deal floated around. Both sides seemed to be communicating well in preparation for the meeting in October. There is prospect for US to roll back some imposed tariffs if China could offer some commitment regarding intellectual property protection and agricultural purchases.

The return of risk appetite could be well seen in the rebound in major treasury yields. German 10-year yield jumped from -0.634 to close to 0.445, comparing to -0.739 record low made earlier this month. Japan 10-year JGB yield also jumped from -0.245 to -0.155, comparing to this month's low at -0.285. Yen ended as the weakest one, followed by Canadian Dollar. Sterling was the strongest as it's looks more likely that no-deal Brexit could be averted on October 31. Australian Dollar was the second strongest on risk appetite.

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USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD's decline from 1.3382 extended to as low as 1.3133 last week but rebounded strongly from there. The development suggests that pull back from 1.3382 has completed. And more importantly, rise from 1.3016 is probably not over yet. Initial bias is now on the upside for 1.3382 resistance first. Break will target 1.3564 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 1.3133 will bring retest of 1.3016 low.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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