Dollar and Euro as Joint Winner, Risk Aversion Intensified
Action Insight Weekly Report 9-3-22
Dollar and Euro as Joint Winner, Risk Aversion Intensified

Dollar and Euro ended as double winners of the week. The greenback was boosted by solid economic data from the US, including non-farm payrolls, risk aversion, and rising yields. On the other hand, ECB policy makers were singing a hawkish chorus which prompted expectation of a 75bps rate hike at the September 8 meeting.

Yen was the biggest looser on the back of rising benchmark yields in the US and Europe. BoJ is also clearly maintaining a dovish stance. Yen was also pressured on heightened geopolitical tension in the Taiwan Strait, with repeated military provocation by China using drones.

But Sterling was not too far away from Yen, as UK's outlook, which is already in recession, looks dim. Swiss Franc is paring some of recent gains, as Euro recovered. Commodity currencies were mixed, with Canadian Dollar having a mild upper hand against Aussie, for expectation of a 75bps BoC hike and a 50bps RBA hike this week.

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USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY's up trend resumed last week by breaking through 139.37 and hit as high as 140.79. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Next target is 100% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 143.40. Sustained break there could bring upside acceleration of 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, below 138.04 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

Recommended Readings

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Labor Market Report Complicates FOMC's Decision on September 21

Week Ahead – Rate Hikes Keep Coming

The Weekly Bottom Line: Canada – Full Steam Ahead to Hike Rates

Will Another 50bps Hike by the RBA Lift the Aussie?

Week Ahead – ECB Decision Highlights Central Bank Trifecta

Job's Not Finished: Bank of Canada to Hike Rates Again

Weekly Focus -Tightening Talks

Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis
In-depth Reports
Fed Continues to Guide US Economy Towards a Recession
RBA to Raise the Cash Rate by 50 Basis Points Next Week
New ECB Call - We Expect 75bp at the Meeting Next Week
Research China - The Risk of a Taiwan War and What it Implies - Part 2