Stocks at New Record, Dollar Plummeted, Aussie Turning Around
Action Insight Weekly Report 9-4-21
Dollar Weakness to Stay after Substantial Setback in Job Recovery

Dollar was under pressure most of the week and selling accelerated again after the big disappointment in employment data. The non-farm payroll report could show that job market recovery had made a "substantial setback" rather than "substantial further progress". A tapering announcement from Fed in September is basically off the table. Overall development in US stocks were mixed with NASDAQ and S&P 500 making new record highs but DOW was stuck in range. 10-year yield also struggled in range but managed to close firmly above 1.3 handle.

Swiss France, Yen and Dollar were the worst performing ones for the week, on underlying risk-on sentiment. New Zealand and Australian Dollars were the winners. Overall development suggests that Dollar's near term weakness is here to stay. But Dollar index will need to break through 91.78 key support level to solidify bearishness. That would correspond to firm break of 1.19 handle in EUR/USD. At the same time, Gold will also need to break through 1832 resistance to double confirm Dollar selling. As for going long against the greenback, Aussie could be a candidate as it continued to strengthen upside moment. But that would also be subject to reaction to RBA policy decision ahead.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD's rebound from 1.1663 extended higher last week. Initial bias remains on the upside this week with focus on 1.1907 resistance. Decisive break there will indicate that fall from 1.2265, as well as the consolidation pattern from 1.2348, have completed. Near term outlook will be turned bullish for 1.2265/2348 resistance zone. However, on the downside, rejection by 1.1907 followed by break of 1.1792 support will dampen the bullish case, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.1663 support instead.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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