| | | | Friday, February 21, 2025 | | 35 days until Opening Day ... | | More than anything, we want the start of Spring Training to be uneventful. This is the time of year when injuries happen more frequently than any other, with every competitive pitch and hack carrying with it the potential for danger, so we're mostly just hoping to see everyone get through the first few games in one piece. | | Unfortunately, after an absolutely disastrous 2024, Bobby Miller couldn't even get through his first appearance of the spring without something going wrong. Pitching in the third inning of Thursday's Cactus League opener against the Cubs, Miller was hit in the head by a line drive off the bat of Michael Busch. He went to one knee for a minute while being checked on by trainers, and thankfully was able to walk off the field under his own power. | | Hopefully, it ends up being a relatively minor issue for Miller, but it's a terrible way to start what he was surely hoping would be a bounce-back campaign after everything seemed to go wrong a year ago. For what it's worth, Miller looked healthy before that scary incident, and the rest of the game passed without incident, with few players likely to contribute to either team seeing more than a couple of trips to the plate. | | There will be five more games on the schedule this afternoon, followed by a more or less full schedule of games beginning Saturday and running over the next month. I gave you my thoughts on the biggest questions for every team heading into spring action in yesterday's FBT Newsletter, plus a rundown of everything I'm looking for this spring the day before , and we'll surely see some big movement in the Fantasy Baseball draft marketplaces in the coming weeks based on what else goes down this spring. | | Before all that, let's take another look at where things stand in terms of ADP. In the rest of today's newsletter, I've got thoughts on 20 players' prices, focusing on the biggest risers and fallers in ADP from January to February, as well as five of the best and worst values. | | Things will change between now and when most of you are drafting, of course. Some of that will be for a good reason, but some of it won't; that's just how things work in this game. Let's see if we can find where the inefficiencies in the marketplace are as the games kick-off. | | | | ADP Review | | | | The biggest risers from January to February | | We're looking at NFBC ADP from January to February here. | | Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets – Jan. ADP: 53.6; Feb. ADP: 46.1 | | This one is fairly simple: Players' prices tend to rise once they've signed as free agents. No, it's not always logical – the chances of Alonso or Teoscar Hernandez or Alex Bregman not signing anywhere were effectively zero, and even the risk of them signing somewhere that might totally torpedo their value was pretty low. Alonso returns to a tough hitters park, but one he has mastered before, and he'll be hitting behind Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor , giving him a realistic path to an MLB-leading RBI total, so bumping him up a bit is fine. But he was more undervalued before than anything. | | Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers – Jan. ADP: 43.8; Feb. ADP: 38.4 | | Here we go again. Langford was one of the fastest risers I've ever seen last year on the strength of a massive spring, and now it looks like he's going to push his way into third-round consideration in 12-team leagues despite only having one good month as a rookie. There's plenty to like about Langford, of course – he's a breakout pick for me! – but the signs of looming stardom were pretty limited in 2024. He showed a broad, well-rounded skill set as a rookie, but was surprisingly short on superstar tools – his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and max exit velocity were in the 59th-66th percentile across the board, and his plate discipline metrics were in a similar range. Lacking weaknesses can be its own superpower, of course – there's some of that to Francisco Lindor's skill set as a hitter, for example – but I'd feel more comfortable pushing Langford to the borderline-elite range of drafts if there were evidence of some louder in-game tools here. | | Spencer Strider, SP, Braves – Jan. ADP: 140.0; Feb. ADP: 123.0 | | We've gotten some pretty promising reports from Braves camp so far, with Strider already throwing bullpen sessions and targeting a late-April return from an internal brace procedure to repair the UCL in his right elbow. But here's what we don't have: Any hard data on how he actually looks. And we probably won't have that until much later in spring – he might make one appearance in a Grapefruit League game before the season starts. Given the very limited track record of success for pitchers coming back from this specific procedure, we just don't have a lot of evidence to point to suggest Strider is just going to be himself when he gets back. He might. But until I get some actual data on how Strider's stuff looks, I won't be moving him up – and I'm getting the feeling he's going to get pushed into the top-100 picks before all is said and done. | | Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays – Jan. ADP: 87.1; Feb. ADP: 78.1 | | Finally, an answer to the question we've all been wondering: "How much is one home run in the Dominican Winter League worth in ADP?" I'm being a little glib, obviously, but this is another one where there really isn't a good reason for Caminero's rise up the ranks, besides everyone just pushing him up a little to make sure they can get him on their team. This is too rich for my tastes in most drafts, but I'm going to be part of the problem at some point because I do need to make sure I get Caminero on my team at some point. And now I know I'm probably going to have to take him 75th overall to have a chance. And the ADP keeps rising … | | Tyler Glasnow, SP, Dodgers – Jan. ADP: 114.7; Feb. ADP: 104.8 | | Well, Glasnow isn't currently injured, and I suppose you could argue that reports that the Dodgers won't use a six-man rotation until May could boost their pitchers' values. Of course, Glasnow still has his long track record of injuries, including an elbow sprain that ended his 2024, so I really don't see much reason to push him any further up draft boards than he already is. He's my 109th-ranked player, so I think his current price is fine. | | | | The biggest fallers from January to February | | Relievers who lost their job – Lucas Erceg, Porter Hodge, Ben Joyce, Kirby Yates, etc. | | Each of these guys either saw their team add a likely closer or, in Yates' case, joined a team with a likely closer on board. That doesn't mean you need to take them all off your draft boards entirely, but it does mean they are just late-round fliers to see if the likes of Carlos Estevez, Ryan Pressly, or Kenley Jansen suffer an early-season meltdown that opens the door. And in 12-team leagues, they'll go undrafted as often as they are drafted, I would guess. | | Felix Bautista, RP, Orioles – Jan. ADP: 84.1; Feb. ADP: 90.1 | | And over the past 10 days, he's down to around 93 in ADP. That's a massive drop from his 65.9 ADP in December. It's not as significant a drop over the past month, but it has gotten his price down to a point where I might consider drafting him. Bautista is coming back from not just Tommy John surgery but also a second elbow surgery last February, and we just haven't seen what he looks like after all that. If he pitches in a spring game and is sitting 99-100 with those wicked sliders and splitters, I'll be fine moving him back up to where he was before. But that probably won't happen until we're well into March, so he should hold here until we get eyes on him. | | Roki Sasaki, SP, Dodgers – Jan. ADP: 85.7; Feb. ADP: 99.8 | | This is still a little ahead of where I have Sasaki ranked, but it's another one where I think the market is right to correct itself. He's hugely talented, but between the likelihood of pitching in a six-man rotation for most of the year plus concerns about his ability to stay healthy amid declines in the quality of his stuff last season, the ceiling just isn't quite as high here as you might think. Sasaki could put together ace-level production over 130 innings, but that's probably the best-case scenario – and if he's sitting more around 96 mph like he was in his final season in Japan, even that is probably asking too much. | | Trevor Megill, RP, Brewers – Jan. ADP: 143.9; Feb. ADP: 163.9 | | Megill has been slowed a bit at the start of Spring Training while dealing with an undisclosed injury, which probably explains most of this drop. He remains the undisputed closer in Milwaukee, something that has been confirmed since the start of camp. Megill isn't an elite closer, but he's on a team where the top three closers combined for 41 saves in 2024, so there's significant upside even if he doesn't put up the gaudy strikeout totals some others at the position might manage. There's no reason right now to think Megill's injury is a serious one, so I like buying the dip here. | | Jung Hoo Lee, OF, Giants – Jan. ADP: 225.9; Feb. ADP: 240.9 | | I'm not sure there's a good reason for Lee's price to be falling, and I think he's probably a pretty nice value right now. Lee is coming back from a shoulder injury that ended his first MLB season after just 37 games, but he's healthy now and will hit in a valuable spot high up in the Giants' lineup – likely third, based on initial chatter out of camp . Lee wasn't great in his first taste of the majors, but he did show elite bat-to-ball skills and average power that should lead to a .280-plus average and 15-20 homers, and there's potential for 90-plus RBI if he hits third. That's a fine pick anywhere outside the top 200. | | | | Best Values | | For this one, we're using FantasyPros.com's Consensus ADP. | | Grayson Rodriguez, SP, Orioles – ADP: 104.8 | | In my SP Preview last week, I mentioned that Rodriguez's path to unlocking the upside we've been looking for could be to bring his sweeper back, and would you look at that, he's working on exactly that in the spring. Rodriguez has all the makings of an ace for Fantasy, but he hasn't quite gotten there in his first two MLB seasons. Bumping his strikeout rate up a bit could help, and that's where the sweeper – his highest whiff rate pitch when he threw it as a rookie – could come in huge as a put-away pitch. I'm betting on him taking a big step forward in Year 3. | | Isaac Paredes, 3B, Astros – ADP: 190.0 | | Paredes landed in the absolute best possible spot for his skill set, and it's like none of you even care. Paredes had 31 homers and 98 RBI in 2023, and was on pace for 26 and 88 before a trade to Chicago totally torpedoed his season. If he had played every game in his career in Houston, he would have had 79 homers, compared to just 56 at Wrigley Field and 74 in Tampa. Yep, this is an even better landing spot than he had before the trade. Paredes doesn't hit the ball nearly as hard as a lot of the guys going ahead of him, but I'm not sure our expectations should be much different for him than they are for the likes of Mark Vientos, Junior Caminero, Jake Burger, or Eugenio Suarez , all of whom are going well ahead of him. | | Carlos Correa, SS, Twins – ADP: 248.3 | | The concern is that Correa won't be able to make it through the whole season, and that's a fair concern given how much time he has missed in recent years. On the other hand, he is currently healthy, and you can't ask for more from him than that. And even with an uncharacteristically poor 2023, Correa has still hit .272/.351/.453 in three seasons with the Twins, putting up a per-161 pace of 25 homers, 84 runs, and 83 RBI. There's a chance he's a legitimately impactful four-category contributor this season, and I'd gladly take him ahead of Jeremy Pena, Dansby Swanson, or Ceddanne Rafaela , all of whom are ahead of him in ADP. | | Jackson Jobe, RP, Tigers – ADP: 263.8 | | I think Jobe might just be the most undervalued player in Fantasy drafts right now. He's not quite on Roki Sasaki's level as a prospect, but he might not be far off – FanGraphs' top prospect rankings have Sasaki as a 65 future value player (out of 80), while Jobe is a 60, while Scott White's Fantasy prospect rankings have both as top-10 choices. And the path to immediate impact might be even more clear for Jobe, who doesn't have Sasaki's history of arm troubles, recent velocity red flags, or concerns about a six-man rotation. And he's in a better ballpark, to boot. Jobe should be going after Sasaki, but 170 picks after? Now that's a bridge too far. | | Thairo Estrada, 2B, Rockies – ADP: 321.3 | | I'm starting to talk myself into Estrada being a part of my middle infield plans in Roto leagues. He's coming off a disastrous 2024 season that saw him hit just .217 with two steals in 96 games, but he had been a very solid contributor in two prior seasons, hitting .266 combined with 44 steals. Playing half his games in Coors Field should help the batting average bounce back, and I'm hopeful the steals will come back, too. Getting a potential .275 hitter with double-digit homer and 20-steal upside outside of the first 300 picks doesn't happen very often. Take advantage. | | Worst Values | | Brice Turang, 2B, Brewers – ADP: 116.8 | | Look, you need stolen bases to compete in Roto leagues. A lot of them. And Brice Turang is going to steal a bunch of bases. I get it. But this is simply too rich a price to pay for a guy who is, even in a best-case scenario like 2024, just a one-category contributor. He was one of the biggest contributors in the league in that one category, and if you get to this point in the draft and are staring at a real stolen base deficit, you might have to do what you might have to do about it. But if you're taking Turang this early, you probably messed up somewhere along the way. | | Shohei Ohtani, SP, Dodgers – ADP: 133.5 | | Ohtani is working his way back from a second elbow reconstruction surgery, and his path back is going to be a lot more complicated than it will be for the likes of Spencer Strider or Shane McClanahan . Ohtani is throwing bullpen sessions right now, but he isn't expected to pitch in any Cactus League games this spring, in part to manage his innings with an eye on a May return to the rotation. But here's the real complication: He also probably isn't going to go on a minor-league rehab assignment when he's ready to pitch in games, in order to keep his bat in the lineup for the Dodgers. That means that the first time Ohtani pitches in a game will also be his first MLB start since suffering the injury back in September of 2023. Maybe it'll all go fine – Ohtani is a once-in-a-lifetime player, after all, so why can't he do something nobody else can? But it's asking an awful lot, even of him, and it's not a bet I want to make – especially when he's also coming back from left shoulder surgery! If Ohtani is a separate player in your pool as a hitter and pitcher, he's a top-three pick as a hitter, but he might not be even a top-150 pick as a pitcher. Oh, and by the way: Because he'll be the Dodgers' DH when he isn't pitching, you're just wasting a roster spot on him as a P until he's cleared to play. You won't even be able to stash him in an IL spot. Maybe 150 is too high. | | Lane Thomas, OF, Guardians – ADP: 163.8 | | I'll be honest: I just don't think Lane Thomas is all that good. His 28 homers in 2023 look like a huge outlier, and his 28 steals in 77 games with the Nationals in 2024 look like they might be one too, as he stole just four in 53 games after getting to the Guardians. He strikes out too much for a guy with below-average power, and if you can't count on him for 20-plus steals, I'm not sure he's even a starting-caliber Fantasy option. The 25-plus steal upside keeps him in the 200 range for me, but I think there's a world in which he isn't even an everyday player for the Guardians by the summer. | | Luis Gil, SP, Yankees – ADP: 170.8 | | 2024 sure looked pretty close to a best-case-scenario outcome for Gil, who had never thrown even 110 innings in a season before getting to 151.2. And he needed a .237 BABIP to achieve the success he did, with his ERA estimators suggesting he was lucky to have an ERA below 4.00. There will be plenty of strikeouts, but there will also be inefficiency on a per-start basis that makes quality starts and wins hard to come by, along with a WHIP that might be tough to stomach. I think I'd rather have Spencer Arrighetti over Gil straight up, let alone at a 50-pick discount. | | Gleyber Torres, 2B, Tigers – ADP: 205.5 | | When you get to this point in the draft, it's hard to make a bad pick, but Torres certainly isn't a good one. His move to Detroit this offseason was just about a worst-case scenario for Torres' bat, with 104 expected homers in his career there, compared to 143 at his old home in New York. Torres generally doesn't hit the ball especially hard, nor does he have a swing geared to pulling the ball down the line, so those deep power alleys in Comerica Park are just going to devour him. He could still hit in the .260-.270 range, and I'd bet on a bounce back to double-digit steals after he fell to just four last season. But he isn't likely to be an impact contributor anywhere, so even around 200th overall, I'd rather take a swing on someone with more upside, like Colt Keith, Jonathan India, or Christopher Morel. | | | | | | | | EFL | | College Basketball | Wrexham takes on Mansfield Town to kick off your Sunday! Watch live this Sunday at 10 AM ET on CBS Sports Golazo Network, our 24/7 network dedicated exclusively to global soccer coverage, and streaming on Paramount+.
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