If you like to live dangerously and you came into this year with both ArcelorMittal and Gemfields in your speculative portfolio, then you probably feel like you could already do with a holiday.

There was a time when South African corporates were all chasing the African dream. South Africa wasn't doing so well, which made many executives look further north for inspiration. Sadly, in the majority of cases, an African expansion has been a difficult mess. Not only do you have to contend with stuff like rapidly depreciating currencies, but you also have to navigate violent elections (when they actually happen) and the eternal risk of a money grab by desperate African governments who prioritise near-term gain over any kind of long-term sustainability.

Enter the Zambian government and a sudden decision to put a 15% export duty back on emeralds. This isn't the same as raising the effective tax rate on profits. No, it's much worse than that - this is a tax directly on revenue, which applies whether there are profits or not.

For Gemfields, which has already been in trouble, this is a disaster. I'm generally bearish on the risk/return mix in the rest of Africa and this is further proof.

The only other major news on the day was related to Wesizwe Platinum and its going concern status, which remains subject to regulatory approval in China of ongoing funding lines.

Get the details on both stories, along with a few Nibbles, in Ghost Bites this morning>>>

The first Magic Markets episode for the year is out in the wild. We talked about a whole bunch of things, ranging from market trends coming into 2025 through to a sobering discussion on the JSE's performance in 2024 in the context of global markets. There's also some fascinating stuff in there about China and how the geopolitical landscape is playing out. The podcast and transcript are available here>>>

If you're only just rubbing the sleep out of your eyes this year, then the latest Ghost Wrap will help. It covers the most interesting news from the end of 2024, including Prosus, Italtile, Renergen, Metair and Bell Equipment. Brought to you by Forvis Mazars, you can find it here>>>

For the qualifying entrepreneurs among you, remember that MIC Khulisani Ventures is looking to provide capital to businesses that are ready to aggressively grow. Applications need to be in by the end of January, with capital expected to flow by March. To fully understand the opportunity, be sure to listen to this podcast>>>

Have a great day!

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang hasn't won himself any friends in the quantum computing space. He made comments at the analyst day that useful quantum computers are probably 15 - 20 years away, which is a very long time indeed even for growth investors.

This sent shockwaves through the market, with stocks in the quantum computing sector falling by as much as 40% on the news. If you buy the hype, then you simply have to realise that you are running the risk of moves like these. There are no cash flows yet to underpin the valuation, so the value is entirely based on the future that people are prepared to believe in. When someone like Huang makes such negative comments, that hurts belief.

Magic Markets Premium kicks off the year with Nike this week, as we are now the closest we've been to taking a long position in the company. Under new CEO Elliott Hill, Nike looks set to get back to its core DNA. There's vast competition in this market, so will that be enough? And is the valuation really cheap enough yet? Subscribers find out this week.

Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R18.91/$ | US 10yr 4.67% | Gold $2,664/oz | Platinum $968.30/oz | Brent Crude $76.23