Welcome back to the VIP Table, nil!

Hope you’ve brought an appetite—because this week’s Market Munchies is smoked, spiced, and simmering with macro mischief. 🍖💥

On the grill? Global growth got shaved like brisket, Meta lit the AGI burners with Alexandr Wang, and Powell blamed tariffs for keeping rate cuts off the menu. Microsoft and OpenAI are cooking with tension, China’s chip IPOs are heating fast, and U.S. metal tariffs just doubled without a press release.

Oh, and Bitcoin? Still medium-rare at ~$106K—bubbling just beneath breakout.

From cyber flambés to AI fondue, the market’s full of bold bites and slow burns. Forks up—let’s dig in. 🍽️

- Dan

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Fresh off the skillet—macro slow-cooks, AGI ambition, and tariffs smoked to the bone. Global chefs are back in the kitchen, and the menu’s getting political. 🍳

📉 Global Growth Simmered to 2.9% – The global pot’s cooling. Demand’s soft, trade’s oversalted. Growth’s off the boil—and dessert’s delayed.

🇺🇸 U.S. Growth Trimmed to 1.4% – Inflation’s still chewy, tariffs are back, and the Fed’s keeping the lid on. America’s entrée just got smaller.

🔧 Eurozone Manufacturing Warms Up – PMI is almost cooked at 49.5. Still underdone, but no longer frozen. Some heat rising, returning to the stovetop.

📊 Markets Close H1 at Record Highs – Tech soared through Q2. S&P and Nasdaq plated fresh highs, served with a soft-dollar drizzle.

🤖 Meta Builds a Superintelligence Lab – Zuck folded FAIR and Llama into one big AGI fondue. Alexandr Wang’s running the flame.

🇨🇳 China’s Chip IPOs Bring the Heat – Two GPU upstarts prepping a $1.6B listing feast. Beijing’s not just eating—they’re building the kitchen.

🥩 U.S. Doubles Tariffs on Metals – Steel and aluminum now grilled at 50%. Global trade’s feeling the burn. Supply chains, brace yourselves.

💬 OpenAI & Microsoft Tensions Simmer – Altman’s hinting at kitchen drama. Still cooking together—for now—but the sauce is splitting.

🔥 M&S Cyber Flambé – A hack torched online ops. Recovery’s slow, £300m profit loss is baked in, and August’s the new opening night.

🕊️ G7 & NATO Cool the Global Grill – Diplomacy eased the heat. Middle East tensions lowered. Risk assets back on the menu—for now.

A curated bite of the week’s boldest tickers. Served sizzling, seasoned with context, and plated for premium portfolios. 🍽️

🍟 NVIDIA (NVDA) – $155.11 (↑1.2%) Reclaimed the #1 spot in global market cap. Blackwell demand is cooking hot, with AI data center upgrades keeping Wall Street in a full basting cycle.

🍴 Takeaway: Still the prime rib of AI—but price pressure could sear margins if subsidies taper off.

🍏 Apple (AAPL) – $212.29 (↑2.1%) AI momentum lifted shares, with renewed speculation about potential partnerships between OpenAI and Anthropic. Siri may finally get some spice.

🍴 Takeaway: Back on the stove, but still light on substance—AI sauce needed to stay relevant on the main menu.

🖥 Microsoft (MSFT) – $491.25 (↓0.16%) Azure remains a solid side dish, but headlines around OpenAI CEO tension put a lid on bullishness this week.

🍴 Takeaway: Still dependable in any macro stew—but needs a fresh recipe to outflavor Nvidia’s flash.

🕶 Meta (META) – $718.21 (↓0.14%) The launch of the superintelligence division stirred serious curiosity. Meta’s AI appetite is growing, but the kitchen’s getting crowded.

🍴 Takeaway: Bold prep work happening—just don’t overstock the pantry without tasting the results.

🚗 Tesla (TSLA) – $305.44 (↑1.6%) A rebound from last week’s char—a bounce cooked by delivery optimism and political tailwinds, but still unevenly grilled.

🍴 Takeaway: Charred edges with some juicy middle. Keep an eye on regulatory burners and autonomy timing.

⛽ ExxonMobil (XOM) – $109.34 (↑0.09%) Oil nudged higher, but Exxon remained calm on the front line. Geopolitical premiums added flavor, but no breakout sizzle.

🍴 Takeaway: Classic slow-roast—reliable, but not the dish stealing the show this season.

🛢 Chevron (CVX) – $145.72 (↑0.10%) Efficiency played a key role in the Permian, keeping the broth simmering. Small gains, but margins are ageing well like wine in a cellar.

🍴 Takeaway: A lean, disciplined chef in a noisy kitchen—perfect for those who like steady portions.

🎨 Adobe (ADBE) – $392.10 (↑1.35%) Guidance is impressive, and AI integrations are gradually warming. The creative suite’s finally getting its AI garnish.

🍴 Takeaway: Warming up again—still waiting on the big reveal to fire up a full entrée.

🏦 Big Banks (JPM, GS, C) – Approx. ↑1–2% Passed Fed stress tests with ease. Capital flows returned to the vaults, and investors liked the flavor of financial stability.

🍴 Takeaway: Comfort food for your portfolio—less spicy, but full of substance.

🪙 Bitcoin (BTC) – ~$106,000 (↓0.8%) Cooled slightly as Senate debates created heat, but ETF inflows stayed robust. Resistance at $111K still broiling.

🍴 Takeaway: Still the star of the digital buffet—but mind the spice levels. Volatility is baked into the crust.

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 The global pot didn’t boil—but the lid shook. Growth was shaved, tariffs got a double dose of spice, and AGI chefs rewrote the playbook. It’s not quite a crisis kitchen, but it’s not a comfort meal either.

📉 Global Growth Simmered to 2.9% 

The World Bank and the OECD have revised their global growth projections downward, citing high interest rates, weaker trade flows, and geopolitical tensions. The previous hope of a soft landing is starting to look more like a long, slow simmer. 

🥄 Serving Note: Time to go light on cyclicals—momentum’s soft, and the global kitchen’s still under reconstruction.

🇺🇸 U.S. Growth Trimmed to 1.4% 

The U.S. economy is cooling faster than expected. Weaker housing, softer consumer spending, and trade headwinds—especially those stemming from tariff hikes—have further eroded the growth outlook.

🪵 Kitchen Insight: Don’t expect big stimulus recipes—Washington’s pantry is politically divided and fiscally tight.

🔧 Eurozone Manufacturing Warms Up 

After 34 months in the freezer, the Eurozone manufacturing sector showed signs of thawing. The PMI hit 49.5 in June—still technically contraction, but edging closer to expansion territory. 

🫕 Heat Check: Watch Germany and France for leadership—industrial rebound isn’t guaranteed, but ingredients are improving.

📈 Markets Close H1 at Record Highs 

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the first half of 2025 with new all-time highs, fueled by AI optimism, resilient earnings, and dovish central bank signals. The rally’s been sweet—but perhaps over-sweetened.

🍮 Reality Check: Valuations are rich—time to trim positions with frothy multiples and layer in some balance-sheet protein.

🤖 Meta Fires Up Superintelligence Unit 

Meta merged its FAIR research lab and Llama team into a new “Superintelligence” division, signalling full-throttle ambition on AGI. Alexandr Wang (of Scale AI fame) is reportedly tapped to lead it.

🍲 Tech Bite: Meta’s no longer just in the race—it’s trying to own the kitchen. Capex will rise, and AI competition will heat up further.

🇨🇳 China’s Chip IPOs Bring the Heat

Two Chinese AI chip startups, linked to government-backed efforts, are preparing $1.6 billion IPOs. With U.S. export curbs tightening, Beijing is accelerating the development of domestic alternatives.

🌶 Geopolitical Garnish: Expect semiconductors to stay at the heart of U.S.–China tensions. Hedge your exposure across jurisdictions.

🧱 Steel & Aluminum Tariffs Doubled to 50% 

The U.S. quietly doubled tariffs on key metal imports, citing national security risks. While aimed at China, the ripple hits suppliers globally and raises costs for industries from autos to appliances.

🔥 Sourcing Sidenote: Monitor margin compression in construction, infrastructure, and industrial manufacturing.

💬 OpenAI & Microsoft Tensions Simmer 

CEO Sam Altman acknowledged rising friction with Microsoft. While their partnership continues, differing visions around openness, monetization, and deployment pace are causing strategic rifts.

🥄 Partnership Prep: If the alliance unravels, downstream AI ecosystems (e.g., Azure, Copilot, plugin stacks) may realign rapidly.

🛍️ M&S Suffers Cyber Flambé 

Marks & Spencer was hit by a significant cyberattack, disrupting internal systems and e-commerce operations. Estimated losses amount to £300M, and full restoration is not expected to be completed until August.

🧯 Security Slice: This is your reminder—tech risk isn't just for tech firms. Cyber hygiene should be treated like cash flow.

🕊️ G7 & NATO Turn Down the Global Grill 

Talks in Washington and Brussels aimed to cool tensions from the Middle East to the South China Sea. There were no headline deals, but coordinated messaging helped calm the geopolitical temperature.

🌍 Risk Radar: Markets welcomed the relative calm. But don’t mistake a pause in heat for long-term peace.

This week’s kitchen features labor loafs, tariff marinades, and a fresh batch of global macro stew—slow-cooked with policy drizzle and earnings zest. 

 📉 Tuesday, July 9 – U.S. Payrolls & ADP Data Hit the Grill

Markets are bracing for June’s job count and unemployment rate. Expectations: a slowdown to ~110K jobs, and a tick up in unemployment to 4.3%.

📌 Labor Loaf Forecast: A cooler print might grease the Fed’s rate-cut pans. A hot one? Back in the freezer we go.

 📜 Tuesday, July 9 – FOMC Minutes Drop the Spice Mix

The Fed’s June meeting minutes hit the table—and everyone’s sniffing for signs of rate pivot seasoning or more hawkish heat.

📌 Policy Palate: If Powell’s still stirring in tariff-flavored inflation, don’t expect a dovish glaze just yet.

 🛒 Monday, July 8 – Eurozone Retail Sales Serve a Sentiment Check

The bloc’s June sales numbers will show if European consumers are still nibbling or pushing the plate away.

📌 Continental Course: Weak data may push the ECB toward early loosening—or send euro bulls running for the bread basket.

🔥 Tuesday, July 9 – Tariff Pause Reaches Its Boiling Point

Trump’s 90-day tariff freeze is set to expire. India, Japan, and the EU are all on the chopping block. Will he renew diplomacy—or turn up the trade fryer?

📌 Trade Dish Watch: One wrong move, and we’re back to sizzling supply chains and reheated cost pressures.

 💸 Monday–Wednesday, July 8–10 – RBA & RBNZ Rate Decisions

Central banks in Australia and New Zealand deliver their latest verdicts. Inflation and wage pressures are on the butcher’s block.

📌 Global Prep Note: A surprise cut could ripple through bond markets. If they hold, expect another round of cautious global seasoning.

 🏦 Friday Preview – U.S. Banks Begin Earnings Season (July 14 Onward)

The likes of JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi, and Wells Fargo are starting to cook their Q2 results. Expect fresh takes on net interest margins, loan appetite, and credit exposure.

📌 Street Tastebuds: If the loan growth is bland and credit provisions spicy, expect some seasoning shifts in financial stocks.

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SEE PROVIDERS

From central banks' slow-roasting policy to billionaires' stir-frying AI strategy—here’s who cranked up the burners this week:

🇺🇸 Jerome Powell – The Fed’s Reluctant Roastmaster

Dropped a spicy comment blaming Trump’s tariffs for inflation reheat—saying he would've cut rates already if the political sauce hadn’t thickened.  🔥 Flavour Profile: Smoky restraint with a dash of deflection. Still cooking data before slicing rates.

🕶 Mark Zuckerberg – Silicon Valley’s Superintelligence Sommelier 

Launched Meta Superintelligence Labs, pulled in Scale AI’s top brass, and set the AI kitchen on full boil. $14B in AI investment, and he's still planning more. 

🧠 Garnish Game: Think AGI fusion with a side of acquisition heat. He’s not just playing chef—he’s buying the whole cookbook.

🤖 Sam Altman – AI’s Disrupted Dinner Host 

Acknowledged tension with Microsoft like a sous-chef mid-kitchen fight—while rivals poach staff with $100M side deals. The AI kitchen? Politely on fire. 

🔥 Course Correction: Partnerships still standing, but the serving trays are wobbling. Strategic plating needed—fast.

📉 The US Dollar – This Week’s Slipping Ingredient 

Strategists forecast a continued July slide, citing tariff tremors, debt marinades, and Fed hesitation, already down 11% YTD. 

💸 Currency Flavor Note: It’s not spoiled—but it’s going soft. Expect fresh seasoning from global risk chefs.

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Slicked with ambition, scorched by tension. Bite carefully.

🧠 Meta fused FAIR + Llama into a superlab. Zuck’s not racing—he’s building the track—Wang’s now head chef.

🤖 OpenAI–Microsoft drama simmers. Altman’s stirring tension, and the sauce is separating mid-service.

🕹️ NPCs got brains. Inworld’s AI sidekicks now riff, joke, and steal your loot—emotionally and literally.

🚀 NASA + GPT? AI copilots are now space-tested. Houston just got automated.

📉 Growth trimmed again. Global to 2.9%, U.S. to 1.4%—less soft landing, more economic sous-vide.

🛢️ Tariffs doubled. 50% on metals. No fanfare—just inflation baked in.

🪙 Bitcoin hovered at $106K. Bulls hungry. Resistance is still medium-rare.

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 📉 Growth trimmed, both sides of the Atlantic.

 🤖 AGI labs firing up—Zuck wants the whole kitchen.

 💥 Microsoft & OpenAI politely feuding—knives out, smiles on.

 🛢️ Tariffs doubled under the table—bon appétit, inflation.

 🖼️ Adobe, banks, and big oil stayed calmly plated.

 🪙 Crypto? Still torching tastebuds—just on lower heat.

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And that’s the week—served hot from the Market Munchies kitchen. 🧑‍🍳

Powell deflected with spice, Zuck plated a superintelligence lab, and OpenAI’s partnership stew is splitting mid-simmer. Tariffs are torching trade, banks have passed the stress test, and growth? Still stuck in a slow-cook cycle.

The big bite?
Markets are tiptoeing across a sizzling skillet—rich in ambition, light on stability, and cooked just enough to keep you hungry.

Until next serving—

Stay sharp. Stay spicy. And always leave room for dessert. 🍨📉

For more information and to verify the accuracy of the claims made in this email, please consult the following reliable sources:

🔗 Global growth trimmed to 2.9% as trade risks deepen – World Bank

🔗 Meta forms Superintelligence Lab, taps Alexandr Wang to lead AGI charge

🔗 Microsoft–OpenAI friction heats up over AGI control and direction

🔗 U.S. quietly doubles steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%

🔗 Altman confirms rising tension with Microsoft amid strategic splits

🔗 Big banks pass Fed stress test, unlock buybacks and dividend hikes

🔗 S&P and Nasdaq close H1 at record highs on AI optimism

🔗 China fast-tracks $1.7B chip IPOs amid U.S. export curbs

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