Baidu's launching an AI chatbot | SoftBank lost money lost quarter |

Hi John, here's what you need to know for February 8th in 3:14 minutes.

3️⃣ Three is a magic number – and with Ludovic Subran, chief economist at Allianz, joining us for the third Finimize Podcast, there’s no doubt that this one’s turned out pretty magically. Listen in and get to grips with China’s reopening, central banks’ current playbooks, and the risks for stocks in 2023. Listen on Spotify or YouTube

Today's big stories

  1. Baidu told the world to get ready for China’s answer to ChatGPT
  2. Here’s why the big banks are still cautious about stocks – Read Now
  3. Japanese firm SoftBank reported a loss last quarter, dragged down by sinking tech investments

Bard And Ernie

Bard And Ernie

What’s Going On Here?

Chinese internet giant Baidu announced on Tuesday that it’s planning to launch its own artificial intelligence (AI) tool.

What Does This Mean?

Tech's having something of a midlife crisis right now, but instead of bagging motorbikes, graying firms have seized on something much more exciting: AI. Earlier this week Google revealed it’s got an AI-powered chatbot called Bard in the works, and Microsoft’s already poured $10 billion into OpenAI – a higher price tag than the Harley-Davidsons most midlife crises involve. And now that Baidu’s heard the neighborhood dads revving their brand-new engines, China’s biggest search engine’s decided to test drive some wheels of its own: after spending billions on AI research, the firm's planning to roll out Ernie, China’s answer to ChatGPT, next month. That was all investors needed to hear: they jacked shares up 15% to give Baidu its best day since March.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Rare riches.
Investors everywhere have caught artificial intelligence fever, snapping up AI-related shares like it’s 1997 and the mall just stocked new Beanie Babies. That enthusiasm also means that startups aiming to overtake OpenAI are flush with funding, creating a rare bright spot in the otherwise dim tech space. Case in point: three months into 2023, multiple AI companies have either already raised or are on track to raise almost a cumulative billion dollars in funding – no mean feat these days.

For you personally: Dare to doubt.
Let’s be real: the ChatGPT hype is really about the platform’s potential, and less about what it’s delivering in the here and now. After all, there are examples aplenty of the chatbot spitting out straight-up errors with serene robotic self-confidence. That’ll probably change over time, as lively competition forces companies to improve their offerings, but for now, think of ChatGPT and its ilk as useful but fallible tools, whose efforts need sharp-eyed fact checking and a healthy dose of common sense. In short, don’t be like CNET.

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Analyst Take

Fear, Greed, And Why The Big Banks Are Still Cautious About This Rally

Fear, Greed, And Why The Big Banks Are Still Cautious About This Rally

By Russell Burns, Analyst

The rocketship rally we’ve seen this year in stocks wasn’t in any of the forecasts from big investment banks. 

And even now, those Wall Street giants aren’t changing their outlooks for the year

But it has sure got investors’ attention: the so-called fear and greed index is now pointing toward extreme greed. 

So that’s today’s Insight: let’s look at the rally, what the banks see coming, and what it all means for you.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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No Soft Touch

No Soft Touch

What’s Going On Here?

Japanese conglomerate SoftBank announced on Tuesday that it lost money last quarter.

What Does This Mean?

When the going gets tough, the tough get going – so it’s a real shame the Japanese giant isn’t named “ToughBank”. Instead, the conglomerate showed it was aptly named last quarter, adopting a softly-softly approach and a more “defensive” position. Thing is, that didn’t actually help: SoftBank’s Vision Fund business – which oversees the world’s biggest tech-focused investment funds – saw the value of its holdings in unlisted companies take a nosedive. And the firm’s listed investments didn’t fare much better, with losses in companies like Coupang and WeWork overshadowing some small recoveries. The end result was that the Vision Funds lost $5.5 billion. That’s about half what they lost the quarter before, sure, but it’s the fourth straight time they’ve finished in the red – meaning SoftBank startled analysts by posting an overall loss too.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Loser’s quandary.
These back-to-back losses have tied SoftBank’s hands and hampered its ability to make the big, bold bets it’s best known for. And that has the firm facing a tricky Catch-22, because a successful moonshot could be just what SoftBank needs to lift it out of the hole it’s stuck in. Last quarter, though, the firm split under $350 million in investments between a handful of startups – chump change compared to the $144 billion plus it invested over the previous five and a half years.

The bigger picture: Armed and dangerous.
SoftBank’s having a tough time right now, and the firm’s counting on a big upcoming move to turn things around. The firm’s planning to list chip design giant Arm on the stock market – but while the venture could be a whopper, success is far from guaranteed. After all, the plan is to list by December, but weak markets could cause all kinds of delays, keeping poor old SoftBank cash-strapped.

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💬 Quote of the day

“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”

– John Kenneth Galbraith (a Canadian-American economist, diplomat, and intellectual)
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🌍 Finimize Live

🥳 Coming Up Soon…

All events in UK time.

💰 How To Build A Smart Portfolio: 1pm, February 14th
💸 Healthy Investing Habits For Uncertain Times: 6pm, February 14th
👩‍💻 Opportunities For Women In Blockchain 2023: 12.30pm, February 16th
🏠 How To Start Investing In UK Real Estate: 6pm, February 20th
🗞 The Relationship Between News And The Markets: 5pm, February 21st
✍️ What Are Investment DAOs And How Do They Work?: 6pm, February 22nd
🌥 Do Recessions Have A Silver Lining?: 5pm, March 8th

🎯 On Our Radar

  1. R-rated VR. The popular VRChat platform is getting steamy behind closed doors.
  2. No thinky, just sleepy. Here’s how to shut your brain off at night.
  3. Purple rain. Street lamps all over the world are casting a very strange-colored light.
  4. WikiGPT. The world-famous AI platform could help write Wikipedia articles.
  5. 2022 was a wild one. But at least it gave us some pretty decent memes.
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