View in web browser

Good morning Voornaam,

Alphamin had some weather issues this quarter but has guided a major production jump for 2024.
Cash sales at Lewis reflect the broader economic issues.
LVMH breathed renewed life into luxury.
Dominique Olivier on the Stanley cups craze and how people just love hype.
TreasuryONE updates us on US PCE numbers and interest rate expectations.
Magic Markets brings you the latest on Crocs and Birkenstock in this podcast>>>

Local company news:

Friday was a solidly busy day on the local market. I enjoyed the Alphamin update, with the company reminding us of the numerous risks faced by mining groups. Even if they get everything right on production, they still rely on external infrastructure (and the weather) to get the tin sold to the market.

The fourth quarter of 2023 was one of strong production (finishing off a record year) and weak sales volumes due to high rainfall. The company hopes to play catch-up in the first quarter of 2024. More importantly, Mpama South is due to be commissioned in 2024 and should be responsible for a major production jump.

The other major local story in Ghost Bites this morning was the release of sales numbers by Lewis. The furniture retail group is known for wading through the economic mud and somehow emerging unscathed, with a lucrative dividend for shareholders and some share price growth as well (usually thanks to share buybacks). The latest numbers show that credit sales are carrying the story, with cash sales under immense pressure.

People don't have money. It's that simple.

Also look out for updates from BHP, Grindrod Shipping and Novus, as well as Sea Harvest and Brimstone regarding the acquisitions of the Terrasan businesses.

Get everything you need to know on these stories in Ghost Bites>>>

Also be sure to add the Ghost Wrap podcast to your weekly listening regime. This week, you need only five minutes to get the most important insights on Motus, Attacq, Clicks and Woolworths. This podcast is designed for busy people just like you, with thanks to Mazars. You'll find it here>>>

I also do a weekly radio segment in Namibia that you might enjoy. The latest one covered AVI, Karooooo, Cashbuild and Netflix. Find it here>>>

International company news:

Thanks to data and automation specialists B2IT, Magic Markets brings you the latest from the world of ugly shoes! This might upset a few people, but Birkenstock and Crocs felt to us like they could be grouped together. Admittedly, we don't know much about fashion. We know a little bit about the numbers and investing though, so get up to speed on both companies in this podcast>>>

If you've been reading Ghost Mail regularly, you'll know that the market was looking forward to the release of results by LVMH. The luxury market had received several mixed signals, ranging from poor results at Burberry through to a solid set of numbers at Richemont.

Those with short positions in LVMH learnt a hard lesson about taking risk on earnings releases, as the share price was up nearly 16% in the past week. LVMH achieved organic revenue growth (i.e. constant currency and without the impact of acquisitions) of 13% in 2023, achieving a record year in the process. Profit was 8% higher.

Sephora continues to fly, being the major source of 25% organic growth in Selective Retailing. The core segment Fashion and Leather Goods also put in a stellar performance, growing 14% despite being the largest part of the group.

The laggard? Wines and Spirits, down 4% organically. Even luxury groups are allowed one blemish.

Moving on, consumer products truly are fascinating. Even the humble thermostat can suddenly get on the right side of influencers and become a craze. In Dominique Olivier's latest example of business storytelling, she highlights that people are losing their minds over Stanley cups. This is the exact same behaviour that we see playing out in the stock market over and over again. Prepare yourself for the hype here>>>

Have a great day!

LISTEN: Magic Markets podcast

In Episode 159 of Magic Markets, we dug in the back of our cupboards for the shoes we are too embarrassed to wear. Perhaps we just aren’t fashionable enough, as there are many celebrities wearing Birkenstocks. As for Crocs, there are few who would put those on a pedestal for beautiful design!

Of the two ugly shoe contenders, which one is a buy? And what can we learn about IPOs from this?

Find out about the opportunities and risks in this podcast, brought to you by international data and automation specialists B2IT.

Listen to Magic Markets Episode 159 here (23 minutes long)

Currencies, commodities and rates: TreasuryONE Market Update

US PCE data was in line with expectations, coming in at 2.9%. Despite this, a surge in consumption and an upward revision of previous data has reduced expectations for interest rate cuts among some players in the market. Current inflation data could justify a cut in March, but this could be a mistake due to signs of inflationary pressures re-emerging. These include rising wages and profit margins, as well as supply chain pressures.

The market is expecting significant cuts in 2024 and this is by no means guaranteed.

The rand had a good afternoon session on Friday as data came out in line with expectations. A weekly close below R18.70 will need to be achieved to sustain the current rally. This morning, it is trading at R18.78.

Gold is at $2,026, platinum in ZAR has moved higher to R17,108 and Brent Crude is at $84 a barrel.

As a Ghost Mail reader, you have a wonderful early bird opportunity to register for the 2024 post-budget panel discussion hosted by TreasuryONE, Econometrix and ETM Analytics. I absolutely cannot recommend this enough and I will also be attending to learn from the panel. Get it in your diaries now already by registering at this link>>>

READ: Why are we losing our minds over Stanley cups?
(by Dominique Olivier)

You’ve heard of an emotional support animal, sure. But why are people all around North America suddenly talking about an “emotional support water bottle”? Is the Stanley cup really the last word in personal hydration – or is this just a sippy cup for adults? Dominique Olivier investigates.

Learn about the Stanley cup craze in this article

LISTEN: What to do with those festive savings with Siyabulela Nomoyi of Satrix

Saving and investing over December - January isn't easy. To keep you inspired, Siya joined me to cover a wide range of ETF topics - along with some tips of how to keep those goals going over this period of endless spending!

Listen to the Ghost Stories podcast here (38 minutes long)

READ: Letter from the Editor - from Cape to Clarens

A roadtrip across South Africa is always a treat. Of course, it's also a way to see what is really going on out there. I wrote about my experience from Cape Town to Clarens (and back again!)

Read about my roadtrip and observations in this article

You should expect us in your inbox Monday – Friday. If you don’t receive an email, please check your spam, or junk folder and “move us” into your primary inbox to ensure you get it each morning.

Disclaimer

Our content is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. You must do your own analysis before executing any investments or strategic decisions, based on your own circumstances. We do not provide personalised recommendations or views as to whether an investment approach or corporate strategy is suited to the needs of a specific individual or entity. You should take independent financial advice from a suitably qualified individual who gives due regard to your personal circumstances.

Whilst every care is taken, we accept no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in any of our content.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in our content belong solely to the author or quoted individuals and/or entities, and not necessarily to the author's employer, organisation, committee or other group or individual, or any of our affiliates or brand partners.