Will the attempt on Donald Trump’s life be a watershed moment – or a new source of division?

Good morning. On Saturday night, the United States came within a couple of inches of an unthinkable democratic crisis. The assassination attempt against Donald Trump – which left a spectator and the gunman dead, two others critically injured, and the former president with a wound to his right ear – felt like a moment of what Trump once darkly called “American carnage”. And it is likely to have far-reaching ramifications for the US election that we can’t yet predict.

Authorities have discovered bomb-making materials in the suspect’s home and car, while Joe Biden last night delivered a primetime address from the Oval Office calling for “national unity”. Meanwhile, Trump said that his speech at the Republican convention on Thursday – which will take place amid tightened security - would bring “the whole country, even the whole world, together”.

Some of the crucial questions: how could this happen? What were the shooter’s motives? How will the attack affect the tone of the campaign? And what will Americans conclude about the best way to counter political violence? Today’s newsletter sets out what we know so far, and what still needs to be explained. Here are the headlines.

Five big stories

In depth: ‘Get down, get down, get down’

At 6.13pm local time in Butler county, Pennsylvania, Donald Trump was speaking at an open-air rally in front of several thousand people when a volley of gunshots rang out. Trump flinched and reached for his right ear before ducking behind the podium as a man shouted “get down, get down, get down, get down”.

As members of the crowd screamed and took cover, secret service agents rushed to the bloodied former president. Video from the scene captured agents saying: “Shooter’s down. Shooter’s down. Are we good to move? We’re clear, we’re clear.” Trump pumped his fist as he was hurried off stage. He was taken to hospital and discharged the same evening, and was later shown in a social media video walking off his plane unaided after landing in New Jersey.

A man in the crowd, later identified as former fire chief Corey Comperatore, was shot dead; two others with serious injuries were taken to hospital. Authorities later said that the shooter was killed by the secret service, and that the “subject involved” was Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20-year-old from Bethel Park, Pennsylvania.

Here’s what else we know.

Eyewitness accounts | ‘Everyone started panicking. It was chaos’

Shane Chesher, a 37-year-old who was sitting directly behind Trump as the incident happened, told Reuters: “It sounded like pop, pop, pop. I thought it was a prank, like fireworks. Then I watched it get real very quickly when President Trump went down and secret service came in and more shots went off.” He said children close to him were screaming. “Everyone started panicking. It was chaos.”

Others addressed the media angrily as they left the rally. The Washington Post reported members of the crowd shouting at the press area: “The liberal media is responsible!” and “You’re not safe. It’s your fault.”

Perhaps the most remarkable account was one given to the BBC by Greg Smith, a Trump supporter who was outside the perimeter of the rally when he said he saw a man crawling with a rifle on a nearby rooftop. “We noticed the guy bear-crawling up the roof of the building beside us, 50ft away,” he said. “We’re pointing at him, the police are down there running around on the ground, we’re like ‘Hey man, there’s a guy on the roof with a rifle’ … and the police did not know what was going on.”

“I’m thinking to myself ‘Why is Trump still speaking, why have they not pulled him off the stage’ … the next thing you know, five shots ring out.”

Questions over security | Gunman was less than 150m away

Smith’s account has not yet been corroborated by authorities. But evidence from video footage of the rally and descriptions of the incident suggest the secret service has serious questions to answer about whether adequate security measures were in place.

Video taken after the attack and posted on social media appears to show the gunman’s body on the roof of a building just north of the rally’s security perimeter – less than 150m from where Trump was speaking.

State police cautioned that it was too early to fully understand the details of what happened and that an investigation was under way. But Kevin Rojek, the special agent in charge of the FBI’s Pittsburgh field office, said at a press conference that “it is surprising” that the gunman was able to open fire on the stage. He said that it appeared that law enforcement was unaware of his presence on the roof before he started firing.

The Republican-led oversight committee in the US House of Representatives has summoned the secret service director, Kimberly Cheatle, to testify at a hearing on 22 July about the assassination attempt.

The suspected shooter | No motive yet identified

The FBI identified Thomas Matthew Crooks as the “subject involved” in the assassination attempt. Ramon Antonio Vargas has more details on what is known about Crooks, 20, so far.

He had no known criminal record, and officials said that no motive or ideology had yet been identified. Nor have investigators found evidence of mental health issues. He was a registered Republican but donated $15 to a group aiming to increase progressive voter turnout via Democratic political action committee ActBlue in 2021.

Crooks, a dietary aide at a nursing and rehabilitation centre, lived about an hour’s drive from the site of the attack and graduated from high school there in 2022. US media reported claims that he had been bullied at school and rejected from the school’s rifle club, but school officials have not confirmed that. Early on Sunday morning, streets near his family home were closed off as law enforcement searched the premises.

Trump’s reaction | ‘Fight, fight, fight’

In the moments after the attempt on his life, and as secret service agents attempted to take him off stage, Trump told them to wait. He pumped his fist and mouthed “fight, fight, fight” to cheers from his supporters. As David Smith writes: “The circus master’s presence of mind … produced a photograph for the ages and guaranteed his status as both messiah and martyr.”

That picture, AP photographer Evan Vucci’s image of Trump looking defiant with his fist in the air in front of a US flag (above), appears likely to define how his supporters characterise his reaction in the days ahead. His son Donald Trump Jr posted it on X with the caption “He’ll never stop fighting to Save America.” Many other prominent Republicans shared similar posts.

In a post on TruthSocial on Sunday, Trump attempted to strike an unusually statesmanlike tone, writing: “It is more important than ever that we stand United, and show our True Character as Americans, remaining Strong and Determined, and not allowing Evil to Win.”

The impact on the election | Attempts to blame Democrats

If Trump sought to present himself as a unifying figure, many of his Republican surrogates swiftly took an incendiary tone, explicitly blaming Democrats and Joe Biden without evidence of the gunman’s motives or influences yet available. That tone is familiar from many of Trump’s own inflammatory statements during his political career, from warning of a “bloodbath” if he loses the upcoming election to calling his political enemies “vermin”.

Senator JD Vance, who is a contender to be Trump’s running mate, said that the shooting was “not just some isolated incident” and went on: “The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.” Trump’s campaign sent out a fundraising message which read: “They’re not after me, they’re after you.”

Joe Biden meanwhile condemned any kind of political violence, saying: “The idea that there’s political violence or violence in America like this is just unheard of. It’s just not appropriate. Everybody must condemn it.” He later spoke to Trump in a call that aides described as “short and respectful”.

It is not yet clear how the attack will shape the rest of the campaign – and Trump’s off-the-cuff remarks in the coming days may not be as carefully chosen. His speech on Thursday will now draw even greater attention; Andrew Prokop of Vox runs through arguments for how it might boost his support or prove limited in its impact.

One probable impact that few Democrats are willing to discuss publicly: the pressure on Joe Biden’s own candidacy seems likely to dissipate, at least temporarily. One senior Democrat told Axios that it would be “bad form to make any statements against President Biden”, while another said, “I don’t think that’s the focus right now”. The question now is whether when the appetite to challenge him returns, it will be too late.

What else we’ve been reading

• From age gaps to height gaps, religious divides to homophobia, Saturday magazine tells the stories of couples who found love against all odds. Archie

• Phil Doast’s Fit for ever series has been a constant pleasure, and the pictures that accompany his piece on how he came to love yoga after 60 (above) are a neon-lit delight. Toby Moses, head of newsletters

• On his Substack, author and Guardian contributor Dan Hancox has a great piece about the inextricable link between football and cocaine: “Football grounds and pubs are absolutely teeming with the white stuff these days, to a degree that feels completely unprecedented.” Archie

• Eva Wiseman meets Danny Dyer, an actor often imagined as a working class tough guy caricature, but a favourite of Harold Pinter: “I divide opinion, but I think that’s fine.” Toby

• In the Observer, Kenan Malik writes about viewing Labour’s problem with Muslim voters as the result of the war in Gaza alone: “As with many white working-class voters, the failure of mainstream parties, especially Labour, to address seriously their concerns has allowed those pushing identitarian grievances to shape that disaffection.” Archie

Euro 2024 final

After an agonising late winner from Mikel Oyarzabal dashed England’s hopes of major tournament glory once again, Barney Ronay wrote: “Monday will be a day for hangovers and regrets, which is in its own way English football’s own safe place … They will be proud, when the bruises heal, of the way a young team grew into its tournament shape.” For Jonathan Liew, England had “tried to burgle this tournament” rather than ever appearing inevitable. “Perhaps against less resolute opponents, it might even have been enough here. Instead there is a familiarity to this failure: a tale of hopes and wishes where a plan was badly needed.”

Among 16,000 England fans at Manchester’s AO Arena, there was crushing disappointment, but also pride – a mix that most have had enough of. “They were phenomenal,” 30-year-old Michael Stubbs told Josh Halliday. “To get here, I’m just so proud. I think we should get to the same place next time. We’ve got amazing players and a young amazing squad so why shouldn’t we?”

Other sport

Tennis | Carlos Alcaraz won his second Wimbledon men’s title in succession with a comfortable 6-2, 6-2, 7-6 (4) straight-set victory over Novak Djokovic. The 21-year-old joins a rare group of six players who have won at Roland Garros and Wimbledon in the same year.

Copa América | An extra time strike from Lautaro Martinez secured a 1-0 victory for Argentina over Colombia to give them a record-breaking 16th title. Argentina prevailed in a hard-fought match despite an injury that forced a tearful Lionel Messi off the pitch in what may be his last game for his country.

The front pages

England’s football disappointment dominates in many papers, and we have a roundup of their coverage here. The non-sporting headlines are all about the attempt on Donald Trump’s life. “US reels after assassination attempt on Trump at rally” – that’s the Guardian’s splash, while the Times has “Trump makes plea for unity”. “Trump: evil won’t win” says the Daily Mail. “Trump calls for unity in face of ‘evil’ after surviving assassination attempt” – that’s the Financial Times and in the early edition of the Metro it’s “Trump’s would-be assassin a Republican”. The Daily Telegraph has “Trump: God alone saved my life”.

Today in Focus

Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett

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The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

Asha Puthli almost became a huge star in the 70s, writes Kate Hutchinson in her interview with the Indian-born singer, her “sensuous, spacey jazz-disco fusions predating the US’s glitter ball era”. Performing at Studio 54 and rubbing shoulders with the likes of Grace Jones and Andy Warhol, the former Martha Graham Company dancer was moving in legendary circles, but never reached the same level of fame. And yet her work has endured, sampled by likes of The Notorious BIG and inspiring new generations of artists. Now Puthli is embarking on her first major tour in 40 years, her earlier work freshly reissued. She recently performed at Glastonbury, where Woman’s Hour presenter Anita Rani was among the spectators. “To see a south Asian woman finally get the recognition she deserves brought tears to my eyes,” she says.

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