An Amazing Series, Cashing in on Cameras, and Frida y’s Jobs Report

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An Amazing Series, Cashing in on Cameras, and Friday's Jobs Report

11/03/2016 By Nick Lanyi

What a game last night. Not just one of the best Game Sevens, one of the best games period.

If you're an Indians fan, my condolences. The team had an amazing season, and the comeback last night was stirring. I did not foresee Rajai Davis hitting a home run off of Aroldis Chapman when he was choking up on the bat, and just trying to make contact.

As a former denizen of the Windy City, I'm thrilled for Cubs fans. They waited 108 years! The last time the Cubs won a World Series, the Ottoman Empire was still around, the world's tallest building had 47 floors and Henry Ford had just unveiled the Model T.

As for the stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was around 60. It's now at 17,964.

At least Cubs fans got paid while they waited…

Going Virtual

Sticking with the sports theme, Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) today announced the acquisition of Voke, a maker of special cameras that capture sports action from many angles, allowing broadcasters to bring fans into the action with immersive, 360-degree "virtual reality” experiences. The technology can also be used for concerts and other live events. It's cool stuff.

Based in Santa Clara, Intel's home town, Voke is a small firm (15 employees), but its technology already has been used by the Sacramento Kings and at the NCAA Final Four and international soccer tournaments.

This move expands Intel's aggressive move into virtual reality sports experience, which also can be translated into video games. By promoting VR technologies, Intel hopes both to create new markets for its specialty semiconductors and further diversify its revenue stream beyond chips.

And today Linda McDonough, chief strategist for Profit Catalyst Alert, is recommending another camera company that will cash in on drones and the virtual reality systems hitting shelves this holiday season.

Friday's Jobs Report

The October jobs report, to be announced tomorrow, is expected to show a rebound in hiring after two solid but somewhat disappointing months. The consensus estimate is 175,000 jobs created.

This will be the last jobs report before the election, and it could have an impact if it's significantly better or worse than expected.

Economists also will be watching the workforce-participation number for a continued return of workers to the job market. If it's strong enough, that actually raises the unemployment rate, but it would be considered a healthy sign that companies are continuing to hire.

Unless jobs really tail off, all signs are go for the Fed to raise interest rates in December. (As expected, yesterday's Fed meeting was a non-event; officials didn't want to do anything to interfere with the election.)

Don't Get Fooled Again

A blistering financial storm is about to hit our shores. When it hits, weak companies – and their investors – will be washed away. You need to put yourself on solid ground. And that doesn't just mean changing your investment allocations or loading up on cash.

Bargains Amid the Drug Stock Rubble

By Linda McDonough

"How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.

"Two ways,” Mike said. "Gradually and then suddenly.”

This dialogue from Ernest Hemingway's 1926 novel, The Sun Also Rises, could describe drug stocks recently.

Bankruptcy is an exaggeration, but the swift and severe price moves in these stocks is a bit shocking given their long history of incessant and often large price hikes. For years, the playbook for drug companies has been to boost profits via regular price increases.

As a contrarian, I would argue there will be some glittering values on the ground when this storm passes. Yet the regulatory risk of price controls and a shift to permanently lower valuations can't be ignored. I prefer to limit my dollars at risk by buying call options on drug stocks with less reimbursement exposure or on stocks that benefit from increased research for novel drugs, which are more protected from price cuts.

The straw that broke the camel's back was Mylan's 15% price hike on EpiPens last May which followed an earlier 15% increase and was immediately after a competitor's product was pulled off the market. The political backlash rose to a crescendo and fears of price controls spread like wildfire to the entire drug group. Since the EpiPen news the S&P Pharmaceutical ETF is down 13% and the Nasdaq Biotech Index down 10%.

Short sellers have been circling specialty drug stocks due to egregious price hikes for some time. Way back in 2012 shorts were saw profits over the strategy of Questcor Pharmaceuticals, which raised the price of its drug Acthar from $40 per vial in 2002 to $28,000 per vial in 2012.

Questcor was eventually acquired by Mallinckrodt for a 30% premium to its trading price, leaving most short seller writhing in pain. I reiterate once again, how difficult it is to get the timing right on short sales.

Despite some outrage over the pricing of Questcor's drug, the patient population was too small to generate sufficient action by insurance companies. They did little to question the pricing of Acthar and continued to reimburse for the drug and for most other drugs with skyrocketing prices.

Only when patients began to feel the weight of monstrous co-pays and deductibles did the balance of power shift. The Kaiser Family Foundation, who tracks insurance data, notes deductibles have risen 50% in the past five years, up to $1,500 for an individual, on average.

While drug companies lived in their parallel universe, increasing prices 10% to 20%, sometimes as often as every six months, consumers were revolting and searching for cheaper options.

Surprisingly to many investors, the PBMs (pharmaceutical benefit managers) and drug distributors have been the biggest benefactors of price increases. While drug companies scramble to remain on formulary lists by offering big discounts, the distributors pocketed the difference between the "list” price of the drug and the price at which they acquired it. Despite their huge drops I would avoid the drug distributor stocks, which have earnings tied more closely to price hikes.

Any draconian drop across a wide swath of stocks is likely to leave some bargains in its path. I've already issued one call alert for a drug stock in Profit Catalyst Alert and am digging through the rubble for others.

This goes away at midnight

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