An Investing Legend's Contrarian Bet

By Brett Eversole

Buy everything.

That was the message from legendary investor David Tepper on CNBC's Squawk Box in September.

Tepper never shies away from saying and acting on what he really thinks... even if he knows the investing world will hate it.

Born in Pittsburgh to an accountant and a schoolteacher, he's far from a polished Wall Street personality. He comes off as tough and confrontational. He also has a brilliant mind – but he hasn't forgotten his modest upbringing.

Years ago, a reporter asked Tepper where he gets his confidence. With a shrug, he answered, "I was never afraid to go back to Pittsburgh and work in the steel mills."

Tepper tells it like it is. He doesn't sugarcoat what he sees in the markets – even if his ideas go against the consensus. And when he steps into the contrarian spotlight, it's worth paying attention.

Right now, that's exactly what he's doing. And whether you follow him or not, you need to understand the opportunity he sees...

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Tepper launched his investment firm, Appaloosa Management, in 1993. Its flagship fund has returned around 28% a year since then... a track record that would have turned a $10,000 investment that year into more than $21 million today.

Tepper owes his success to finding contrarian ideas. But it's not just about finding them. What sets Tepper apart is this: When he believes in an idea, he bets big.

For example, he famously bet on U.S. banks in 2009... near the depths of the financial crisis. It was a crazy thing to do at the time.

Most investors couldn't see an end to the pain. But by March 2009, Tepper was buying... and buying big.

The trade worked perfectly. His fund soared 117% in the first nine months of 2009. That made it the best-performing hedge fund for the period, with more than $1 billion in assets. And the total profit from the trade was around $7 billion.

Now, Tepper is at it again. His latest "buy everything" call centers around an idea that investors hate just as much as betting on banks in 2009. And I'll warn you up front – there's a good chance you'll hate it, too.

This time, he's buying China.

"We got a little bit longer," Tepper explained on CNBC in September. "More Chinese stocks."

More than that, Tepper is stretching his own rules for how much of the Chinese market he's willing to own...

I have limits, historic limits. I probably said a long time ago, "I don't go above 10% or 15%." Well, that's probably not true anymore.

Tepper would normally limit how much of the portfolio he'd allocate to Chinese stocks. But these aren't normal times. Now, he's willing to own more of them than ever before.

This probably seems nuts if you follow the mainstream media. You'd assume China is an empire on the brink of collapse. But the truth is completely different.

Yes, China has had its share of troubles. Its economy is facing its worst slowdown in decades. But the Chinese government has been taking steps to combat this decline since earlier this year. And Beijing recently kicked its efforts into hyperdrive.

On September 24, the government unveiled a sweeping economic stimulus plan... one that rivals anything we've ever seen from the country before. And while it's waiting to release more stimulus, it has made other moves since...

Regulators are aiming to cut taxes on home purchases. A proposal in the works would let major cities cut a key tax for buyers from as high as 3% to as low as 1%.

Officials have upped the amount of debt local governments are allowed to raise by $836 billion over the next three years.

China has vowed to do whatever it takes to right the economic ship... and force its stock market higher in the process.

Chinese stocks soared more than 40% in the weeks after the announcement. They've pulled back since. But if anything, that gives contrarian investors an entry point into what could become a hugely profitable speculative bet.

That's the bet Tepper's making, too. The change in policy from the Chinese government is what has him excited... so much so, that he's bending his own rules to make bigger bets in a market that most investors are too scared to consider owning today.

I know most investors hate the idea of owning Chinese stocks. But one of the best investors of all time is making this bet right now. And if you can stomach it, following his lead will likely prove to be a smart, profitable move.

Good investing,

Brett Eversole