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Tuesday, June 25, 2024
Among the 12 first-round picks in ADP entering the season, five are now on the IL, with Fernando Tatis going down with a stress reaction in his upper right leg. Tatis joins Ronald Acuna (knee), Mookie Betts (hand), Kyle Tucker (shin), and Spencer Strider (elbow) on the IL – and Trea Turner only recently returned from his own extended absence recently, making it six of 12 who have or now will miss significant time so far.
At this point, we don't know exactly how long Tatis is likely to be out, especially since the team acknowledged it was an issue he was already playing through and could have continued to do so. It's possible this ends up being a relatively short trip to the IL, but it could also be something that keeps Tatis out until the All-Star break to let fully heal.
And, unfortunately, the Padres don't necessarily have anyone to step into Tatis' spot who Fantasy players can get excited about – he was replaced on the active roster Monday by Bryce Johnson , a 28-year-old who has never had more than nine homers in a minor-league season. The best we can hope for is that Tatis gets healthy soon, and if you need replacements, check out my waiver-wire column from Sunday for outfielders to consider adding. 
It's been a tough season for early-round picks, and it just isn't getting any better. Tatis' absence is just the latest big name we've had to deal with, and unfortunately, it probably won't be the last. 
Here's what else you need to know about from around MLB Monday: 
Tuesday's top waiver targets
Spencer Schwellenbach wasn't great Monday night, in what should have been a beatable matchup against the Cardinals. He struck out six over five innings of work with no walks, but also gave up four runs on eight hits, and it wasn't just bad luck; despite allowing just five hard-hit balls, he still had six batted balls with an expected average of at least .700.
That pushes Schwellenbach's ERA to 5.40 through his first five MLB starts, with just two quality starts to his name so far. That's not great, but I'm not ready to give up on him just yet. It's really only one truly poor start, for one thing; Monday's wasn't great, again, but it wasn't terrible, and neither was his three-run-in-five-innings debut. 
For another thing, while Schwellenbach's ERA is a bit inflated, his peripherals paint a different picture; he has a 3.37 FIP so far, and had a 3.62 expected ERA entering this start, too. Schwellenbach is still trying to figure out the pitch mix that works best for him, and I'm not sure his fastball/cutter-heavy approach is the best one possible – his curveball and splitter especially look like his best swing-and-miss pitches, and we'll see if he can start leaning on those more to generate more strikeouts. 
I think the upside is there, and unless there's an obviously more interesting pitcher out there – and I don't think there was on Monday night, at least among widely available Fantasy options – I'm trying to hold on to him. 
Heston Kjerstad, OF, Orioles (31%) – The problem with the Orioles right now is that, every time they call up an interesting prospect, it either means that interesting prospect isn't going to play much or it means someone else interesting is going to lose playing time. Kjerstad was back in the lineup Monday after being recalled, and it came at Colton Cowser's expense, to highlight the point. The question here is whether the Orioles are willing to give Kjerstad more of a look with Cowser sporting a sub-.600 OPS since the start of May. Kjerstad had a .301/.397/.601 line in Triple-A and has 26 homers in 132 career games at that level, so it's worth putting a few cheap bids in on Kjerstad in daily waivers leagues just in case he ends up usurping Cowser. 
Cade Povich, SP, Orioles (36%) – I remain pretty unenthused about Povich as a Fantasy prospect, but he did make some tweaks to his sweeper in his start Monday against the Guardians , throwing it 2.1 mph harder while the rest of his arsenal looked more or less like it had before. That led to five swinging strikes with the pitch and a 42% whiff rate, a significant improvement on his 15.4% mark entering the start. Povich needed to find a way to generate more swings and misses, and this could be the path to it. I prefer Schwellenbach, but if Povich can just be decent with that offense backing him up in that park, he could be very fantasy-relevant. It's not a bad bet to make, even if I don't love the talent. 
Jonathan India, 2B, Reds (53%) – India was carrying a sub-.700 OPS through the end of May, but he's showing in June that he isn't just washed up yet. Since the calendar turned, he's hitting .323/.415.500, enough to work his way back up to the top of the lineup Monday against the Pirates. India can still be a 20-homer, 15-steal guy, and if he's going to hit at or near the top of the Reds lineup, he can still be a viable starter in all Fantasy formats. 
News and Notes
Edwin Diaz has been handed a 10-game suspension for violating the foreign-substance policy. He has the option to appeal, but I'm not sure there's much reason to think he has any chance of getting it reduced even if he does. 
Bryan Woo left his start Monday due to right hamstring tightness. What's interesting is that his velocity was up around 2 MPH on all of his pitches in this start prior to the injury. Woo has had plenty of health scares this season, along with an approach that makes it hard to believe he'll remain a must-start Fantasy option, but I obviously want to see the results of any testing in the coming days on the injury before we make any kind of decision about dropping him.   
Bo Bichette went through a full workout Monday and remains on track for activation from the IL on Tuesday.
Clayton Kershaw will be shut down for at least one week after feeling soreness in his surgically repaired left shoulder during a bullpen session over the weekend. While this isn't necessarily a big deal, my expectations for Kershaw were already pretty low before this complication, so it's certainly not helping matters. 
Willson Contreras returned to the Cardinals lineup Monday after missing six and a half weeks with a fractured left forearm. He hit third in the lineup and went 1-4 with a run and RBI.
Zac Gallen threw a live batting practice session on Monday. He's been out since May 30 with a right hamstring strain, but hopefully is nearing a return. 
Blake Snell will throw a bullpen session Tuesday and start at Triple-A on Friday. He admitted he didn't have his legs under him after his first rehab start despite decent velocity, so I wouldn't be surprised if he still needed a few appearances before he's ready to be activated. Given how poorly Snell has pitched this season, I'd prefer if he takes his time and makes sure he's right before coming back. 
Gavin Williams will make his next rehab start at Triple-A on Wednesday. He could be activated from the IL shortly thereafter. 
Yu Darvish will not rejoin the rotation as expected Tuesday due to "a little" right elbow inflammation. That's a little concerning for a guy who had bone spurs in his elbow last season. 
Nolan Arenado has missed two straight with a left forearm issue but hopes to return in the coming days.
Starling Marte has been advised to rest for the next 15 days after being diagnosed with bone inflammation in his right knee. He's likely to go on the IL. 
TJ Friedl was placed on the IL with a left hamstring strain and is expected to miss 2-3 weeks. It's been a rough season for him so far. 
David Fry was back in the lineup Monday as the DH after leaving Sunday with right elbow inflammation.
Merrill Kelly is targeting a return in mid-August. He's been out since April 23 with a right shoulder strain.
Tommy Edman could begin a rehab assignment soon. He's missed the entire season to this point as he recovers from right wrist surgery, and remains worth stashing for the SB upside. 
Lars Nootbaar took batting practice Monday and will do so again Tuesday. He's been out since late May with an oblique injury. 
The Mariners activated Jorge Polanco who missed just under a month with a right hamstring strain. 
Patrick Sandoval has a high-grade flexor tear and a torn UCL in his left elbow. He'll undergo Tommy John surgery.
Monday's standouts 
Justin Steele, Cubs @SF: 7.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – When Steele isn't right, maybe his approach might not give him enough of a margin for error to succeed against big-league hitters, and that might just be the explanation for his slow start after coming back from that hamstring injury. However, Steele now has a 1.38 ERA with 42 strikeouts over 39 innings over his past six starts and more or less has his season numbers where we expected them to be. I don't know if anyone is still really skeptical at this point, but he has an ERA right around 3.00 over his past 350 innings, so I don't really see much reason to be skeptical now that Steele is healthy. 
Tanner Bibee , Guardians @BAL: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – One interesting wrinkle from Bibee's start Monday is that he threw his curveball a season-high 28% of the time and threw it about two mph harder than his season average, which carried over from his previous outing. The curveball has typically been Bibee's fourth most-used pitch, but he's making some tweaks to the pitch and is showing more faith in it of late, and if they're helping the pitch play up, it could be another weapon for a pitcher we know has significant upside. He's been dominant in June with a 2.82 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 37 strikeouts in 22.1 innings of work. What if this is just what it looks like when Bibee is figuring things out? 
Matt Waldron, Padres vs. WAS: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – At the risk of oversimplifying, Waldron started throwing his knuckleball 40% or more of the time on May 17, and in eight starts since, he has 49 strikeouts to just 12 walks in 50 innings of work, with a 1.80 ERA. He won't be able to sustain that level of success, but it's amazing what happens when you just start throwing your signature, most unique pitch more. 
Taj Bradley, Rays vs. SEA: 5.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 8 K – Speaking of, Bradley continues to pitch really well since making his splitter his No. 2 pitch. That first happened on May 26, and his season has really taken off since then. He has allowed two or fewer runs in five of six outings, and has a 3.69 ERA with 38 strikeouts and 15 walks in 31.667. His command still comes and goes, and he still seems prone to the occasional long ball, but this change looks pretty promising for Bradley, and he's certainly a must-roster pitcher at this point. 
James Paxton, Dodgers @CHW: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – Hey, Paxton is actually getting strikeouts lately, with 14 of them over his past two starts, with 15 swinging strikes in each outing to go along with it. The thing about Paxton is, he doesn't have to be great to be a viable Fantasy option with the Dodgers, given how good the supporting cast around him is. I need to see more than a couple of good strikeout performances from a guy who had nearly as many walks as strikeouts before the past two starts, but if you were thinking about dropping Paxton, he has at least given us reason not to.
Michael Lorenzen, Rangers @MIL: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – I wish I had more to say about Lorenzen, but sometimes he just goes through stretches like this. Remember last season, he had a 3.23 ERA as late as August 9 before falling apart. Even when things are going well, Lorenzen really doesn't get many strikeouts, so while I'm not necessarily saying he's a fraud here, I just don't think there's much in either his underlying numbers or track record to say we need to be buying in as anything more than a streamer right now. 
Casey Mize, Tigers vs. PHI: 4.1 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 10 K – Is it weird that I think this is the most promising outing of the season for Mize? He was getting good results earlier in the season, but with little strikeout upside, but he actually got whiffs in this one. Seven of them with the four-seamer, but also six with his slider and five with the splitter, neither of which had been great swinging strike pitches for him before this one; the slider especially was a problem, generating just a 16.4% whiff rate before this. He was throwing that slider 1.6 mph slower than normal with a bit more vertical break, which could help the pitch play up. Mize will need more than one start – one start in which he had a 6.23 ERA, naturally – before I'll recommend adding him, but I'm at least more interested in watching his next start than I otherwise would have been. 
Griffin Canning, Angels vs. OAK: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – There was a time when we hoped we'd see performances like this routinely, but at this point, I'm mostly inclined to write it off as a matchups thing. He generated seven of his 13 whiffs Monday with his changeup, and if he could make that a consistent weapon alongside his slider, maybe there could be something there. But we're talking about a guy with a strikeout rate well below 20% for the season, so we definitely need to see more than just one good start against the A's to buy in. 
 
 
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