Let the games begin

Good morning Voornaam,

Articles:

  • Ghost Bites: Anglo American has rejected the BHP proposal. Impala Platinum is retrenching. Invicta reworks its offshore structure. Finbond, Oasis Crescent, Reinet and Renergen released numbers. Sibanye wants to equity-settle its bonds. Read Ghost Bites, with thanks to Fedgroup.

  • Investec: The demographic shift in the world has major impacts on retirement planning. How can structured products help? Read it here>>>

  • Dominique Olivier: The case for secondhand luxury business models - especially for younger consumers. Read it here>>>

  • Satrix: Year-to-date performance across asset classes, highlighting themes like AI and gold. Read it here>>>

  • ​Fedgroup: Does incorporating alternatives into your portfolio make sense? Get their views in this entertaining article>>>

Podcasts:

  • Ghost Wrap: the news and my views on Sirius Real Estate, Afrimat, Oceana and PSG Financial Services, delivered in five minutes and with thanks to MazarsListen to it here>>>

  • Magic Markets: Strategic trends and recent performance at Goldman Sachs and United Health Group, brought to you by Future ForexListen to it here>>>

  • Investec Structured Products: The Global Accelerator offers 100% capital protection in dollars at maturity after five years, while giving exposure to global equity indices. Japie Lubbe joined me in this podcast>>>

  • Investec podcast The Current: ​Interested in investment opportunities stemming from South Africa's energy transition? Listen to Iman Rappetti in conversation with Barry Shamley, Zane Bezuidenhout, Boipelo Rabothata and Campbell Perry in Episode 4 of The Current at this link>>>

Unlock the Stock:

  • Bell Equipment recording: The recent event featured Bell Equipment and an array of interesting questions from attendees. Watch it here>>>


Local company news:


Ghost Bites is brought to you by Fedgroup.

Anglo American's board believes that BHP is "opportunistic" and isn't putting a high enough indicative price on the table. I would be very worried about any kind of deal that isn't opportunistic from the buyer's perspective, otherwise what's the point of going through the process? We now wait to see if BHP will give a higher indicative price, or if another bidder will emerge.

In other mining news, Impala Platinum has commenced a substantial retrenchment process and Sibanye-Stillwater is asking shareholders to approve equity-based settlement of its convertible bonds rather than cash-based settlement. At Renergen, the maintenance cycle has hurt profits and these numbers won't do anything to calm the nerves of bearish players in the market.

Moving on, Invicta has decided to restructure its holding in aftermarket parts business KMP by selling the stake to Kian Ann Engineering, in which Invicta holds a 48.81% stake. KMP has done alright, but hasn't shot the lights out in the last couple of years, so perhaps this will inject some energy into that story.

In other news, Reinet fund, which is the precursor to Reinet's listed numbers, grew its net asset value by 7.9% in just the last three months. That's in euros, by the way! And over at Oasis Crescent, the property fund that doesn't have any debt, the distribution is up by 12.9% for the year ended March 2024.

Finally, keep an eye on Finbond. It's been getting more attention from more speculative punters who expect a swing into profitability. The latest trading statement leaves more questions than answers unfortunately, but the direction of travel is positive.

Get the details in Ghost Bites at this link>>> 

 

LISTEN: The Global Accelerator
(with Japie Lubbe of Investec)

The Global Accelerator offers 100% capital protection in dollars at maturity after five years, while giving exposure to global equity indices.

Japie Lubbe of Investec Structured Products joined me on this podcast to talk through the product design and the way it can be used in a portfolio. 

Listen to this podcast to find out more.

READ: Satrix April Newsletter | An Absolutely Incredible Time We Live In

In the April newsletter, Satrix looks at year-to-date performance across asset classes.

The team also highlights the gold and Artificial Intelligence themes in the markets.

LISTEN: Cashing in on clean

There are so many investment opportunities stemming from South Africa’s energy transition.

In episode 4 of Investec’s The Current, discover how you can get some skin in the clean energy game. Hosted by Iman Rappetti, listen to the discussion here>>>

LISTEN: Ghost Wrap
(Sirius Real Estate | Afrimat | Oceana | PSG Financial Services)

You need just five minutes to get the news and my views on these four local companies, brought to you by Mazars.

Listen to the podcast here>>>


International business news:


You might recognise the Comcast name if you've been following MultiChoice's strategic plans. Comcast has a significant stake in Showmax and the plan is to use Comcast's technology to deliver the streaming solution in Africa. If you've ever used the DStv app, you'll fully understand why they need a tech partner.

There's a lot more to Comcast than just the Peacock technology. The company beat revenue and earnings expectations in the latest quarter, although revenue was up by just 1.2%. They are having to push pricing increases into their broadband customer base, as new home connections have slowed down under increased competition and less churn among US homebuyers.

They are still losing plenty of money on Peacock, which is a useful reminder of Netflix's strength as a profitable player. This is despite Peacock being the exclusive home of Oppenheimer, along with plenty of live sports as part of the offering. Interestingly, the company notes that subscribers spend 90% of their time on non-sports programming on the platform. This also tells us something about why Netflix has been successful.

Hungry for more on global stocks? The latest free Magic Markets podcast covers Goldman Sachs and United Health Group - both of which would've doubled your money in the past five years, in dollars! Get the latest on them here>>>

Ready to understand more about risks and opportunities in global stocks? Subscribe to Magic Markets Premium for just R99/month. You'll get a subscribers-only weekly report and podcast on global stocks, covering strategy, financials and technical trading indicators.

READ: Luxe for less - the case for secondhand luxury
(by Dominique Olivier)

The devil wears Prada and so does Dominique Olivier as of this week. But unlike Miranda Priestly, Dominique thrifted her sunglasses.

There is a case for secondhand luxury, especially if you understand younger consumers. Learn more here>>>

Macroeconomic Update

The dollar has started the new week on a softer note ahead of the Fed FOMC meeting and Friday's non-farm payroll data. Last week's PCE inflation indicator came out in line with market estimates, with the market largely betting on the first Fed cut being in September. The rand has been given a break thanks to the dollar taking a breather.

Gold and palladium are slightly down this morning, while platinum is firmer. Traders are likely to be cautious ahead of major data this week.

Key indicators: USD/ZAR R18.74; US 10-year 4.66%; Gold $2,334; Platinum ZAR R17,274; Brent Crude $88.68

This macroeconomic update is based on TreasuryONE's morning update.