🇨🇳 Another blow for China

What’s going on here?

China’s industrial production grew at the slowest pace in four months, which won’t do anything for the country’s low spirits.

What does this mean?

Industrial production in China inched up 5.1% in July, shy of the 5.2% economists expected and below June’s 5.3% pickup. Meanwhile, unemployment ticked up to 5.2% – the first increase since February – matching forecasts but landing higher than June’s 5%. Layer on lackluster factory and export numbers, plus a rare drop in bank loans, and it seems the economy’s still spluttering. That’s despite the government’s best efforts to increase spending, which includes throwing money at high-tech manufacturing initiatives.

Why should I care?

For markets: The dominoes are down.

China’s winded property market is showing little sign of recovery: new home prices were 4.2% lower this July than last, while secondhand homes were 8.8% cheaper. And with few buyers lining up to buy new homes, the construction industry’s been on a long lunch break – and that’s affecting demand for commodities like steel, iron ore, and oil. China’s top steelmaker, Baowu Steel Group, has warned of the worst downturn since 2015. Meanwhile, iron ore has hit its lowest price in two years – and the country’s oil refiners saw their profit tank by over 90% in the first half of the year compared to the same time last year.

The bigger picture: Not-so-hot commodities.

China’s leaning into greener energy, which hardly bodes well for old-school industries and the raw materials they run on. That might explain why hedge funds are the most down they’ve been on commodity prices in 13 years, concerned that demand for everything from oil to metals and grains could stay on the slide. So investors might want to heed the warning and pick their commodities carefully. For example, those tied to AI and nuclear energy – think uranium and copper – could have a more promising future ahead.

What’s going on here?

US retail sales picked up by a better-than-expected 1% during July, as Americans dug deep to keep the economy moving.

What does this mean?

Americans stuck their hands in their pockets in July, pushing retail sales up much higher than their expected 0.3% rise. That 1% figure’s the total uptick, but it was car lots, tech stores, bars, and restaurants that were especially popular. Meanwhile, a separate report showed that claims for unemployment payments dropped to the lowest level since early July. Mix in data that showed price increases were slowing down for both producers and consumers, and investors may be feeling more settled after the recent selloff. The dream of a soft landing – where interest rates tame inflation without toppling the economy – might still be alive after all.

Why should I care?

For markets: Walmart’s an oasis.

If there’s one company that hasn’t been fazed by the economy’s whims, it’s Walmart. The retail behemoth just lifted its sales outlook for the year, banking on budget-savvy shoppers to deliver – or, uh, remove – the goods. See, folk are still seeking out bargains to take the edge off inflation, and cheaper alternatives are Walmart’s bread and butter. No wonder investors have pushed the stock up 31% so far this year, easily beating the S&P 500’s 14% rise.

Zooming out: Star-studded plays.

Plenty of factors push the stock market around: economic growth, inflation, market sentiment, technical analysis… and the moves of celebrity investors. The investment big leagues – those packing portfolios worth over $100 million – show their cards in a quarterly “13F" filing. And naturally, investors trust their decisions – even though they’re reported with a lag and don’t necessarily paint the full picture. So when it was revealed that Warren Buffett snagged shares in Ulta Beauty and Bill Ackman made a play for Nike, investors sent both stocks up – by 14% and 5% respectively.