From the very start, 2023 was marked by disaster and grim new records. Fatalities rose by 30% over 2022, according to an analysis from Save the Children, which concluded at least 12,000 people lost their lives in floods, fires, storms and landslides last year. When temperatures rise so do risks – and 2023 was hotter than any other on record.
Catastrophic fires consumed an estimated 18.4m hectares in Canada and burned through the seasons. Eight months’ worth of rain was dropped on the north-eastern coast of Libya by a single storm (pictured top), which overwhelmed two dams and caused devastating floods that washed away entire neighbourhoods.
For more than a month, Cyclone Freddy besieged southern Africa with a wind strength accumulation that rivaled the intensity of an average hurricane season. Deadly heatwaves swept across Europe, Asia and the US southwest, drought conditions threatened both agriculture and ecosystems in South America, and the historic Hawaii town of Lahaina was incinerated by a firestorm (above) that killed 100 people – the highest toll from a wildfire in the US in modern history.
These are just some of the extreme events that occurred around the globe and the newly set records aren’t expected to hold for long. According to Dr Adam Smith, a climatologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) who tallies billion-dollar disasters in the US, disaster losses there are growing 6% each year – double the rate of gross domestic product and 10 times faster than the population.
Agencies are still crunching the numbers to paint a full picture of the calamity caused in 2023, but through November of last year there were 25 billion-dollar disasters – the most of any year yet. “It is striking that the US has easily broken the annual record of 22 separate events that occurred in 2020,” Smith said. “We expected that record would have lasted a while.”
The growing number of catastrophes has not only tapped resources, it also means there’s less time to recover and rebound before another one strikes. In the 1980s there were 82 days on average between billion-dollar disasters – now there are just 18.
Because these events are happening more often and with greater intensity, they are more apt to form grim feedback loops that set the stage for more destruction. California, for example, spent years gripped by drought and heat that spurred dangerous wildfires. Then, when the downpours came, barren and burned cliffsides crumpled, causing cascades of earth and water that tore through buildings and buried roads.
While it’s hard to predict what extreme events will be in store in 2024, the pattern is expected to stick. El Niño, a climate pattern marked by warmer surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, is in full swing, and could cause even more warming.
“We are already setting global temperature records – that’s going to continue,” said Dr Tom Corringham, a research economist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. In December, scientsts warned 2024 could be the year global temperatures breach a key climate threshold – briefly surpassing 1.5C above preindustrial levels – a dangerous tipping point that will come with devastating consequences.
It’s a grim prognosis, but both Smith and Corringham found a silver lining as we face down another year of disasters: these events inspire action and investment. Far more of both is needed – and there’s little time to lose.
“Climate scientists have been ringing the alarm bells for 30 years now and people have often said it would have to get worse before it gets better,” Corringham said. He believes the severe impacts will force people to take climate change seriously, and work harder to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. “But the window of opportunity is closing,” he added. “I have faith in humanity to tackle this problem – but we need to act now.”
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