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| Wednesday, August 24, 2022 |
| You ask, we answer. That's how things are going to work for the next two weeks of Draft Prep season. Today's newsletter is all about answering your questions -- keep sending them to Chris.Towers@ViacomCBS.com with the subject line "#AskFFT to be included next time! -- and we've got some other pretty great ways for you to get the advice you need before your drafts, too. |
| Like our Fantasy Football Today Draft-A-Thon, coming to CBS Sports HQ and the Fantasy Football Today YouTube channel on Aug. 31. We'll be live on CBS Sports HQ at 6 p.m. and then switching over to YouTube at 8 p.m. until midnight, and the whole point is to answer as many of your questions as we can. And we'll have a bunch of our friends from around the Fantasy Football world on with us to answer your questions all night long. |
| And it's all to raise money for our friends at St. Jude Children's Hospital, and we're doing that with some very cool experiences that you can bid on in our Ebay store with St. Jude. You'll have a chance to chat with the FFT team, our CBS Sports friends, and other Fantasy experts one-on-one through those auctions, with more experiences and prizes being added -- including a poker tournament we'll be playing with FFT listeners next Monday night, which I'll have more details on in the coming days. |
| As we head into this weekend, we'll have updated sleepers, breakouts, and busts from Jamey Eisenberg, updated tiers from Dave Richard, and deep sleepers and the best values on every major draft site from Heath Cummings, plus everything else you need to know about before you draft right here in the FFT newsletter. |
| But for now, let's get to some of your questions. |
| #AskFFT Mailbag |
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| Want to get your questions answered? You've got about two weeks left until the season kicks off to send them in to Chris.Towers@ViacomCBS.com with the subject line "#AskFFT." I'll be getting to as many questions as I can over the next two weeks (plus in-season, obviously), and if I don't answer them in the newsletter, I'll try to reply to everyone personally so you've got the answers you need. |
| We'll start this week's mailbag with one of the more interesting questions I've gotten so far this preseason: |
| Matt – I was curious if you or anyone you know has ever done a historical analysis on whether we should be following the pack with ADP risers and fallers, or if it's more noise and potentially something to fade. It's probably not the easiest analysis, but I'm just curious what it would look like. Anecdotally, I feel there are plenty of examples where weighing preseason news heavily has both helped me and hurt me in the past. |
| I'm not aware of any studies on this topic, but it's a great question. Generally speaking, I think more information is always better, and since we have more information the closer we get to the start of the season, I would guess ADP data continues to get more predictive the closer you get to Week 1. But that's just a guess, albeit a logical one. |
| I think the key, as with all things, is to key in on the trends that are grounded in something seemingly real. Dameon Pierce's value spike lately is an example of that; Antonio Gibson's decline is another . Both of those are tied to what seem to be real, tangible changes in how those players are viewed by their teams, with Pierce going from deep on the depth chart to potentially the starter while Gibson has gone from the presumed lead back to being stuck in a three-way committee – at best. |
| An example of a trend I don't necessarily think makes much sense? Courtland Sutton is starting to separate himself from Jerry Jeudy in ADP, having moved up to 37.39 over the past week in NFC drafts, more than a full round ahead of Jeudy. Neither has played so much as a snap in the preseason, so we're mostly going off training camp reports – notably, one ESPN reporter saying that "when he really needs a completion or has been moved off his spot by the pass rush, he's going to look for Sutton." |
| I'm not saying there's nothing there, but I just have a hard time saying Sutton is obviously a better pick than Jeudy because of that. I've had Jeudy ranked a few spots higher than Sutton throughout the draft process, but generally speaking, I think both should be viewed in the WR3 range with upside. I want a piece of this Russell Wilson-led offense, but seeing as Sutton is going to cost a borderline third-round pick while Jeudy has been there in the fifth round, it's an easy call for me. |
| Konrad -- How do we feel about drafting players we like on bad offenses. I have the first pick and I want to take Christian McCaffrey in my 10-team SuperFlex league. I've seen D.J. Moore fall to the 4-5 turn at times, too -- should I take him without thought or maybe grab my next highest-ranked receiver instead. |
| It would be a mistake to say that the quality of a player's offense doesn't matter for Fantasy, but what you want to make sure you aren't doing is double counting. We've seen McCaffrey be a historically great Fantasy option in a bad offense, so that's not really a concern for me, and I think Moore's poor offensive context is already accounted for in his price. Even with his price rising in recent weeks, Moore is only WR14 in NFC ADP at 34.89, and he's 51.99 in CBS Fantasy leagues. That's a pretty cheap price for a guy with two top-20 finishes in his past three years who got a QB upgrade. |
| Which is to say, generally speaking, those kinds of concerns are already baked into the price. They certainly are for Moore, and they are for guys like DK Metcalf (65.92) and Darnell Mooney (91.19) who would probably be a lot higher if they were in better situations. Downgrading players in bad offenses is a smart strategy, but for the most part, it's already happening. |
| What you want to be on guard for is someone like Dameon Pierce, who is going to continue to see his price rise as a preseason sleeper making good on the chance to be his team's lead back. Unfortunately, that team is still the Texans, so you want to temper expectations. He could be a value in the 90 range of drafts; less so in the sixth round. |
| Brennan – 16-team, full PPR league. I played last year with these same guys and a lot of teams are going to take two QBs. How do you approach a draft like this? |
| Few of you play in 16-team leagues, but this is still a worthwhile question because it gets at an important point when it comes to analysis: You know your league. When I say I want to be one of the first people in my league to draft a quarterback, I say that knowing that most of the leagues I'm drafting in will include my colleagues and other Fantasy analysts, which means quarterbacks will be systematically devalued. If I played in a league where I know quarterbacks will be taken in the first round, I'm more likely to wait and take one or two of the lower-end QBs. |
| Know your league's tendencies and use them to inform your draft. In the case of a 16-team league where nearly everyone is going to draft two quarterbacks, my preference would be to make sure I get one of the sure things – I consider that to be anyone in the first three tiers of Dave Richard's QB tiers, though I'd also add Derek Carr to that list, I think. I don't think I would spend another top-10 round pick on another QB, but if someone like Baker Mayfield was there late, I wouldn't mind having that insurance. Otherwise, I'm probably only drafting someone like Marcus Mariota as insurance. |
| Keith – I draft in the 12th position in a PPR league. When should I start drafting for position needs instead of value? |
| Never. Now, look, I'm the early-round QB and TE guy, so I'm not saying positions shouldn't play a part in your draft strategy. But that's different than drafting for a positional need, in my eyes. You should be taking into account where edges might lie at one position or another, and I think the QBs and TEs in the first few rounds provide that potential edge. |
| But that's different than saying, "Okay, I have the rest of my starting spots locked up, now it's time to draft a running back." If the clear best player on the board is a wide receiver and you've got your wide receiver spots filled already, you should still take that wide receiver. |
| Because you aren't drafting for Week 1, and that's a mistake too many drafters make. Having a potential hole in your roster in Week 1 doesn't matter too much, because your lineup is going to look so much different by Week 5, let alone Week 15. The draft is your best chance to add impact players to your roster, so that's what you should be prioritizing. |
| Rick – Is Taysom Hill worth drafting as a late-round flier? In Yahoo, he has both a QB and TE designation. |
| Hill is spending a lot of time really learning the tight end position in camp, a change from how he has been used in the past. Hill has said he's still expecting to be used as a quarterback from time to time, but the focus has been on making him more of a true tight end, which suggests to me that the chances of him getting a shot to start at QB are pretty slim – it would take injuries to at least Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton, and likely Ian Book, too. |
| And if you're talking about Hill being a viable Fantasy option even at tight end, you probably need him starting at QB for that to happen. There are going to be weeks where Hill is a top-12 TE because he vultures a touchdown in the red zone, but it seems unlikely he's going to be a big enough part of the offense consistently enough for it to be a bet worth making. In deeper leagues or especially Best Ball, Hill is a decent late-round dart throw with some real upside on the high end of his outcomes. But in most 12-team leagues, he'll be a wasted roster spot. |
| Injuries, News, & Notes |
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| Gus Edwards will miss the first four weeks of the season -- at least! |
| Edwards was placed on the PUP as he continues to recover from his torn ACL, which means he's out for the first month of the season. With J.K. Dobbins still working his way back to full speed – he hasn't done full-team drills yet as he works his way back from his own torn ACL – that could leave Mike Davis in line for a pretty significant early-season role. Whether that means he'll be the lead back or a complement to Dobbins remains to be seen, but it's enough to put Davis on late-round radars, especially if you're drafting a Zero-RB build and need a short-term bridge option until you can find someone better. Davis could be a low-end starter with touchdown potential early on. |
| Elijah Mitchell is on pace for Week 1 |
| Mitchell is coming back from a hamstring injury, but coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters Tuesday he is on schedule to play in the opener against the Bears. Mitchell has missed the entire preseason with the injury, and also missed time during offseason training due to a knee injury, so it's fair to wonder whether he'll be able to hold up to being a lead back for a full season – he couldn't do it as a rookie. That makes the 49ers backup RB spot an intriguing one, especially because of how good this offense tends to be at running the ball no matter who is back there. Jeff Wilson has been away from the team due to a personal matter but has the most experience in the system, while second-year back Trey Sermon seems like he's next in line ahead of Tyrion Davis-Price. Sermon remains my favorite late-round option here. |
| Jameson Williams was added to the reserve/NFI list |
| Williams was moved to the reserve list as the team starts to cut down their roster, and it means he'll be out for at least the first four weeks of the season coming off a torn ACL suffered during the NCAA national championship game in January. That timeline makes sense, and Williams still clearly has a ways to go before he is cleared, as he hasn't been participating in training camp practices yet. The No. 12 overall pick in this year's draft, Williams could be a contributor for Fantasy in the second half of the season, but unless you've got an IR spot to play with, he'll be tough to justify using a draft pick on. |
| Sterling Shepard could be activated soon |
| The Giants opted not to place Shepard on the PUP list for the start of the season as he recovers from a ruptured Achilles, which is a sign the team views him as a potential early-season contributor. According to the New York Post , the Giants hope Shepard can be back in the first month of the season, as he has been able to do some individual workouts on the sidelines during camp. What Shepard's role will look like remains to be seen – he played primarily out of the slot and had seven or more catches in his first three healthy games before injuries derailed his season. Shepard has some appeal in PPR formats if he can get back to that form, but I'd rather bet on rookie Wan'Dale Robinson as a late-round target for the Giants and let Shepard show he's healthy before I add him to my roster. |
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