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Friday, November 27, 2020
Week 12 of the NFL season is underway, and the Washington Football Team are in line for a spot in the playoffs. It's been a weird season, and it doesn't look like it's going to get any less unpredictable down the stretch. We got an extra reminder of that Thursday as we learned that Lamar Jackson will be out for Sunday's game against the Steelers after testing positive for COVID-19 -- if that game even gets played at all. 
Washington shellacked the Cowboys in the later game Thursday, following up a Texans blow out of the Lions, and I'll have some thoughts on winners and losers from both games later on in today's newsletter. However, what with it being Thanksgiving yesterday and a day off for many today, I'm going to go a little lighter than usual with Friday's newsletter. I'll break down the Thursday games and provide updates on the latest injuries and news from around the NFL, but if you want to go in-depth on every Week 12 game, check out Dave Richard's Starts and Sits, Sleepers and Busts column and his PPR and Non-PPR Cheat Sheets, as well as Frank Stampfl's matchup notes with something on every relevant player in ever game. 
Injuries, News, and Notes
The latest on the Ravens COVID-19 outbreak
The Ravens-Steelers game Sunday is very much in question at this point, as the Ravens outbreak continued to spread Thursday, at least the fourth straight day they had a positive test. This time, it was Jackson who tested positive, which means if the game does get played, it will be Robert Griffin III starting against the Steelers. Here's what you need to know:
  • Will the game get played? There is a real chance it won't at this point. Not because the Ravens will have too many absences, but because it's not clear at this point if they can even travel without furthering the spread of the virus among the team, let alone play. Especially since reports indicate the team believes Jackson was infected at some point during their Week 11 game. The Ravens have already announced their facility will be closed until at least Monday, which means even if the game does get played, they will have almost none of their usual preparation. 
  • What happens if they can't play: While some have suggested the NFL should force the Ravens to forfeit the game, that seems unlikely. The NFL has already discussed the possibility of adding another week to the schedule in the event of an emergency. When the Titans and Patriots had outbreaks earlier in the season, the games were rescheduled for later dates, with other teams' schedules and byes juggled to make it work. However with just one bye week left on the schedule for just the Buccaneers and Panthers in Week 13, that isn't an option, so adding an additional week to the end of the season seems like the most likely outcome. Let's hope it doesn't come to that, since most Fantasy leagues end in Week 16 and there really isn't any way to reasonably include that hypothetical Week 18 game in your games. It would just be a net loss for anyone who has any Steelers and Ravens on their rosters -- which means you should make sure you have a backup plan ready to go for anyone on either roster you were planning to rely on. 
  • What about if they can play? If the game does happen as scheduled Sunday afternoon, the Steelers would have to be heavily favored given the Ravens' absences, which include Mark Ingram, J.K. Dobbins, Calais Campbell, Brandon Williams, and the top two centers on the depth chart. The Steelers defense would likely dominate the game, while they should have little trouble moving the ball against a depleted Ravens defense, especially in the running game. If the game gets played, Gus Edwards and Mark Andrews are the only Ravens who should be considered viable options in 12-team leagues, while RG3 would have some appeal in 2QB or SuperFlex leagues.
Here's the rest of the news from Thursday you need to know about:
QB Injuries
  • Kyler Murray (shoulder) was limited again -- There is every reason to believe he is going to play this week, so they're mostly just managing his reps. The only concern is whether the injury will make him a less effective passer or a less active rusher, but it's not enough of a concern at this point to make you think about sitting him. 
  • Phillip Rivers (toe) did not practice -- Rivers is expected to play, and he doesn't need to practice to do so, as Frank Reich said earlier in the week. The matchup with the Titans makes him a viable starting option assuming he is able to play. 
  • Teddy Bridgewater (knee) practiced in full again -- It seems likely Bridgewater will be able to play after missing one start. That's not much of a surprise, given reports earlier in the week suggesting as much, and he's a sneaky starting option against a good matchup in the Vikings. 
  • Tua Tagovailoa (thumb) remained limited -- That's two days in a row for Tagovailoa, who coach Brian Flores admitted is "banged up" after Sunday's loss to the Broncos. The injury is not expected to keep Tagovailoa out of this week's game against the Jets, and it's a great matchup. However as we saw last week, the margin for error for Tagovailoa may be pretty slim after he was benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick
  • Sam Darnold (shoulder) practiced in full -- Darnold should be clear to make his return against the Dolphins, though that isn't necessarily reason for optimism for the Jets offense; they have scored just 84 points in his six starts, and the Dolphins pass rush very well may overwhelm the Jets line entirely. 
  • Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) is expected to start for the Bears -- Trubisky has practiced without limitation the last two days, while Nick Foles (hip) has been unable to go. The Bears might have been close to making a switch even if Foles was healthy, given his struggles, so hopefully Trubisky can provide a spark. On the rare occasions the Bears offense has played well in recent years, it has been with Trubisky leading the way, so it might be their best chance.
RB Injuries
  • Christian McCaffrey (shoulder) remains limited -- This all seems like preparation for McCaffrey to make his return after the Panthers Week 13 bye, where he could be a league-winner for those of you with him on your roster -- if you manage to make it to the playoffs. 
  • Chris Carson (foot) was limited at practice -- The Seahawks have expressed optimism about Carson's chances of returning Monday against the Eagles, and this is the first step. We'd like to see him get a full practice in before Saturday, however. 
  • David Montgomery (concussion) seems in line to make his return -- He has practiced without limitations two days in a row, and looks like he'll be cleared to play. Montgomery is a No. 2 RB, mostly thanks to volume. 
  • Todd Gurley (knee) has yet to practice this week -- One day off could just be a rest thing, but two would be a concern. Of course, the Falcons actually didn't practice Thursday, they just released an estimate which mostly served as a carry over from Wednesday's report. Friday will tell the full story, but make sure you have an alternative in case Gurley can't go. 
  • Josh Jacobs (hip) was added to the injury report -- It's not clear if this injury is something to be concerned about. He dealt with a hip issue early in the season, but he wasn't on the report Wednesday, and a mid-week addition is always a concern. Let's see what happens Friday. 
  • Giovani Bernard (concussion) was upgraded to limited participation -- This is definitely a good sign for Bernard, who was a surprise addition to the report with his concussion Wednesday. This is no guarantee he'll be cleared to play in Week 12 against the Giants, but it's a good sign. 
  • Salvon Ahmed (shoulder) did not practice -- That's two days in a row for Ahmed, so this certainly seems to be something to be concerned about. Friday will tell us more -- including hopefully whether Myles Gaskin will return in Week 12 against the Jets. If both are out, Matt Breida would become a very intriguing option, while Malcolm Perry becomes an intriguing DFS sleeper. 
  • Tevin Coleman (knee) was limited at practice -- The 49ers have hoped this would be the week Coleman and Raheem Mostert (ankle) would be able to return, and it looks good for Coleman. As for Mostert, since he's on IR still, the 49ers don't have to give updates on his participation at practice, so we really don't know much about his chances of playing after two days back on the practice field. 
WR Injuries
  • Davante Adams (ankle) has been limited, but is expected to play -- Adams was actually out of practice Thursday, but he is following a similar trend as last week, when he was ultimately cleared to play. It sounds like the same will happen for Week 12 against the Bears. 
  • Julio Jones (ankle) remains limited -- As with Gurley, this was an estimate of his status, so it might not tell us much. The Falcons have said Jones can play without practicing, so even another limited session Friday would probably bode well for his chances. 
  • A.J. Brown (knee) has not practiced this week -- Brown has been getting regular time off to rest his knee during practice for a while now, and that's probably what is going on here, but we'll watch Friday's practice just to make sure. 
  • Jerry Jeudy (ankle/Achilles) was downgraded Thursday -- Jeudy went from limited to out Thursday, which is definitely a bad sign. It doesn't mean he won't play, but it's a concern. It's a tough matchup against the Saints anyway, so Jeudy is by no means a must-start option, but you could consider Tim Patrick or KJ Hamler a sleeper if Jeudy is out or limited Sunday. 
  • DJ Chark (ribs) missed practice again --  It looks like there is a legitimate chance Chark won't play in Week 12 against the Browns, though he still has time to get back Friday. With Mike Glennon taking over at QB for the Jaguars, hopefully Chark can get back and establish a quick rapport, but he's more like a No. 3 WR if he plays. 
  • Deebo Samuel (hamstring) was limited at practice -- The 49ers have been aiming for a Week 12 return for Samuel as well, so he looks to be on track. If he plays, he could be a solid starter with Brandon Aiyuk (Reserve/COVID-19) potentially out. 
  • John Brown (ankle) sat out practice again -- It doesn't look like Brown is going to play, so consider Cole Beasley in a good matchup against the Chargers.
  • Larry Fitzgerald tested positive for COVID-19 -- Fitzgerald will be out for at least Week 12 against the Patriots as a result of this. Fitzgerald is second on the team in targets, so this could lead to more opportunities for Christian Kirk and possibly Andy Isabella, who could be a DFS sleeper. 
TE Injuries
  • Tyler Higbee (elbow) did not practice -- It sure sounds like Higbee isn't going to play, and he probably shouldn't be on your roster at this point. 
  • Hayden Hurst (ankle) did not practice -- As with the other Falcons, it's not clear if Hurst would have been able to practice had the Falcons actually held a session. Friday will clear things up. 
Thursday Game Recaps
Texans 41, Lions 25
The Lions had no answer for the Texans passing attack, allowing two back-breaking long touchdowns to Will Fuller late to seal it. 
  • Winners: Will Fuller and Deshaun Watson -- Watson continues to dominate, as he has 19 total touchdowns to just two interceptions in seven games since Bill O'Brien's firing. It helps that Fuller has stayed healthy, as they have been one of the most dangerous combinations in the league. This is Fuller's fifth 100-yard game of the season, and he remains a must-start WR … T.J. Hockenson -- Not much went right for the Lions Thursday, but it was nice to see a second good performance from Hockenson in a row. His air yards per target over the last two games is just 6.20, but he is averaging 17.4 yards per catch. He won't sustain that kind of after-the-catch dominance, but maybe it's a sign that he's finally getting healthy? He's moved firmly back into the sub-elite tier at tight end. 
  • Losers: Duke Johnson -- It was nice to see him find the end zone and rack up 43 yards through the air, but it came on just three catches and four targets, so he still doesn't have a huge role there. And he ran the ball only nine times, while ceding work to C.J. Prosise, who has six touches. If you started Johnson, he came through, but with David Johnson eligible to come back off IR in Week 13, this might be the end of the line. He has 106 rushing yards in three starts … Marvin Jones -- Jones earned a team-high 12 targets, but several of them were pretty much uncatchable deep lobs. He led the team with six catches but finished with just 48 yards, his sixth game in 11 with fewer than 50 yards; he has just two with more than 55. It doesn't help that Matthew Stafford's thumb injury has clearly impacted his throwing ability, but I'm not sure there's much upside in better than Jones will figure it out. 
Washington 41, Cowboys 16
Antonio Gibson looks like a potential league-winner down the stretch, and he carried Washington to this win.
  • Winners: Antonio Gibson -- The pattern has been clear for weeks: When Washington can run the ball, Gibson will be the lead back. The 115 yards and three rushing touchdowns are, of course, excellent, but the more exciting thing might be the five catches on seven targets. If Gibson is going to be a consistent part of the passing game, he could be one of the best backs in Fantasy, and he ran more routes than J.D. McKissic Thursday… Amari Cooper -- In six games without Dak Prescott , Cooper now has at least 79 yards in four of them, with another 67-yard game in there. He's caught at least five passes in five of six, too. For as much as we've complained in the past about Cooper's inconsistency, he has actually been a model of consistency this season in less-than-ideal circumstances. I can't see sitting him at this point. 
  • Losers: J.D. McKissic -- For just the second time all season, Gibson played more than 60% of the snaps, and his last two games have been two of his four-highest snap share games. That's bad news for McKissic, who needs volume to be a viable Fantasy starter. That hasn't been there since halftime of Week 10, when he had 11 targets in the first half -- he has 10 total over his last 10 quarters. For a guy who averages right around 5 yards per target for his career and has a season-high of just eight carries, that isn't going to cut it. He's not a must-drop, but it's probably in Washington's best interest to continue to make him a role player, not a focal point … Ezekiel Elliott -- I still view Elliott as a No. 2 Fantasy RB thanks to the rushing volume, but his diminishing passing game role is a real issue. He has just seven catches over his last five games on 12 targets. If that continues, he pretty much needs a touchdown to return RB1 value in any given week. That's tough to bet on in a mediocre-at-best offense. 
 
 
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