Are we headed for a state government shutdown?

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Mike Scott | NJ Advance Media

by Brent Johnson, NJ Advance Media

Whispers of a shutdown

It's only April, but I've already heard the "S" word whispered a few times in Trenton this year.
That would be "shutdown." The uncertainty surrounding Jersey's latest state budget has been so intense, with so many different things that could potentially go wrong, that a few insiders have wondered if it could lead to the state government being shuttered for the first time in eight years.

The last time was 2017, when then-Gov. Chris Christie closed state parks, beaches, and government offices during a budget showdown with the outgoing state Assembly speaker. You know, the one where Christie was famously photographed relaxing on one of those beaches.
Since then, shutdown speculation has been an annual rite of state budget cycles. But it usually doesn't blossom until crunch time — the final few weeks before the July 1 budget deadline. This year, the chatter started soon after Gov. Phil Murphy unveiled his final state budget proposal, a record $58.1 billion plan, in late February.

The ingredients are there, and kind of similar to 2017. Like Christie, Murphy is in his last year. Once again, the entire Assembly — controlled by Murphy's fellow Democrats — is on the ballot. And there are huge questions about funding.

For starters, Murphy is asking for $1.2 billion in tax and fee hikes to pump revenue into the budget — hikes that Democratic lawmakers seeking re-election largely oppose. The state is also still projected to spend $1.2 billion more than it takes in, a structural deficit many fear could get worse down the road. And everyone is worried about the feds — specifically President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress making massive cuts to federal Medicaid and education funding that would strip billions from New Jersey's coffers.

Only one thing is certain: No one knows what's going to happen.

"We have some tough decisions in front of us," Democratic state Sen. Andrew Zwicker said.

If Murphy and lawmakers don't agree on what to tax, what to spend, and what to cut by June 30, the governor could order a shutdown just in time for Independence Day.

Democratic legislators have already said they won't support all of Murphy's proposed tax and fee hikes. Most are "dead on arrival," one Democratic lawmaker told me. But that may not be the largest sticking point. I'm told Murphy's team flooded the zone, expecting at least some taxes to be rejected.

That means leaders would need to find money elsewhere to keep the budget's deficit from expanding. Full funding for public-employee pensions, school formula aid, and ANCHOR property-tax relief — a major chunk of the budget — is expected to survive, and I hear Murphy won't budge much on his proposed $6 billion surplus. Meanwhile, lawmakers are expected to seek millions more to fund projects in their districts as they do every year. Will Murphy say no on his way out the door? Will lawmakers seek to pare down the surplus instead or offer cuts?

Then there's Stay NJ, the ambitious law from Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin to carve property taxes in half for most Jersey seniors. It's set to launch this year despite pushback from critics who say it's too expensive. Coughlin will fight to keep it, but multiple insiders told me changes could be on the table to save some money — maybe even lowering the eligibility threshold.

Another bright note: The state is expecting a bump in tax revenue next month, which could provide some much-needed breathing room.

Most players in the Statehouse say they can't imagine talks will fall apart as Murphy, Coughlin, and state Senate President Nick Scutari dig deeper into negotiations over the next three months.

"No one wants a shutdown," one Democratic operative told me.

Especially whoever nabs the Democratic nomination to succeed Murphy as governor in the June 10 primary. "That person would lose their mind if there's a shutdown," a Democratic lawmaker said. Think of the fodder that would give Republicans.

But a big X factor is the Republicans in D.C. Another Democratic operative said while "state-level" issues are "fairly manageable," Medicaid and education cuts could blow gigantic holes into the budget, leaving leaders to scramble (and bicker). And it's still unclear how deep those cuts would be and when they'd come. "We have nothing in terms of a timetable," Democratic state Sen. John Burzichelli said.
There's also the threat of a recession rocking the economy and cutting into tax collections. Even if Jersey officials get a budget done by July, there's a sense the state might have to reopen the plan later this year to account for any fallout.

Republican state Sen. Declan O'Scanlon said he, too, is concerned about what may come from Washington. But he argued the problems run deeper: "This budget has been a house of cards built on a fault line in a windstorm."

One Democratic insider told me while a shutdown ultimately isn't likely, the politics are more volatile than usual. "It’s Trenton, and things can always go sideways," the source said.

Brent Johnson | NJ Advance Media

Gov. Phil Murphy (center) speaks at the Statehouse in Trenton. Behind him are state Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin (left) and state Senate President Nick Scutari (right). These are the top three people who negotiate the state budget.

Hot takes

We're exactly two months from the June 10 primary election, when Jersey voters will pick the two major-party nominees for governor. Here's what insiders are thinking as we enter the heart of the very crowded race: On the Republican end, most think it's still Jack Ciattarelli's to lose, though we're still waiting to see if Donald Trump takes a side. For Ciattarelli, an endorsement would put the race away. For rival Bill Spadea, it would make the primary a real contest. Meanwhile, Jon Bramnick, the anti-Trumper in the primary, has found a lane with immigration. On the Democratic side, it's more open. Mikie Sherrill is considered a slight frontrunner, though Ras Baraka and Steven Fulop are closing in. And no one — Josh Gottheimer, Sean Spiller, or Steve Sweeney — is considered completely out of it. The thought is anyone could eke out a win with the biggest sliver of a splintered vote. Expect everything to heat up over the next few weeks, with more — lots more — money being spent and more ads going up on TV. And don't forget about the disappearance of the "county line." As one Republican lawmaker told me: "Anyone who's predicting what’s gonna happen is full of s**t."

Get well soon to U.S. Rep. Donald Norcross, who faced a serious health scare last weekend when he had what his office described as "an emergency medical event related to his gallbladder" while traveling on a plane. The flight had to be diverted to North Carolina so the congressman could be taken to the hospital, and I'm told the situation was "very serious." Norcross has since been transferred to Cooper Hospital in his native Camden (where his brother, Democratic power broker George Norcross, is chairman). His office said Tuesday the lawmaker is in intensive care but stable and "on his way to making a full recovery."

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) formally put Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr.'s seat on their target list for next year. Kean won re-election in the 7th District by 5 points last year in what was considered one of the biggest races in the country. Next year's battle — coming in Trump's mid-terms — is expected to be just as bloody. One Democratic operative told me it'll be "one of the true red-to-blue chances" in 2026. There are already three Democrats in the race: former Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett, former Summit Councilman Greg Vartan, and now small business owner Brian Varela. Others are expected to follow.

Ruth Dugan helped Jimmy Carter on his 1977 presidential campaign in Jersey, made her own bid for state Senate a few years ago, and is the widow of James Dugan, a former lawmaker, state Democratic Party chair, and political powerbroker who helped Brendan Byrne become governor. Most recently, Ruth hosted a forum in Westwood of Democratic candidates for governor. She told me all agreed to appear, but only one showed up: Fulop. Sherrill sent a surrogate, state Sen. John McKeon. Dugan groused that party bosses may have played a role and still have too big a grip on politics here. "It’s never been as transactional as it is now," she lamented. Dugan admitted she should know — her husband was a party boss, too. For the record, she's a Fulop supporter. That's also who her husband would back, she said. "He believed in good governance."

Jeff Rhode | NJ Advance Media

U.S. Rep. Tom Kean Jr., R-7th Dist., smiles after winning re-election last fall.

What others are saying

Some Jersey stories in the news:

Progressive activists say a bill aiming to curb pop-up parties also threatens First Amendment rights, as reported by the Monitor.

You might remember Darius Mayfield, a Republican who lost two bids to unseat U.S. Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman. He's running for Congress again — but this time in Virginia, as reported by the Globe.

Officials in Summit are considering an ordinance to fine or even jail homeless people for sleeping in public places, as reported by NBC News.

In similar news, Toms River's mayor argued that a pop-up restaurant run by Jon Bon Jovi has contributed to an increase in homeless people gathering in town, as reported by NJ.com.

Tweet of the week

Did you know?

Let's continue our New Jersey-meet-White House trivia. Only one New Jersey native (Caldwell-born Grover Cleveland) and one New Jersey governor (Woodrow Wilson) have served as U.S. president. There has also been only one Jerseyan to be vice president. That would be Garett Hobart.

Hobart, a Marlboro native and Rutgers grad, led both houses of the state Legislature before he was elected as the running mate of Republican presidential candidate William McKinley in 1896.

And he might have become president if he hadn't fallen ill and died of a heart attack in Paterson in 1899. His replacement on McKinley's 1900 ticket: New York Gov. Theodore Roosevelt. And when McKinley was assassinated a year later, Roosevelt ascended to the presidency.
You can visit Hobart's grave in Paterson.

About this newsletter

Welcome to What Makes Jersey Run, a weekly newsletter for anyone interested in the always-lively world of Jersey politics and America’s most important governor’s race in 2025. Join NJ.com’s award-winning political reporter Brent Johnson as he gives you the inside look at what really happens behind the scenes in a state rife with scandal, controversy, and power players (some of whom wind up in jail). Brent, who has been covering the craziness in Trenton for more than a decade and knows who pulls the strings, will deliver his exclusive insights on the state of politics and the big campaign right to your inbox.

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