| | Sunday marked the 150th anniversary of the "Great San Francisco Earthquake" — but not the one you're thinking of.
On Oct. 21, 1868, a major quake struck on the East Bay's Hayward Fault. The jolt reached across the Bay and caused extensive damage in San Francisco, the region's largest city, so the name stuck.
When a bigger one came along on the San Andreas Fault in the spring of 1906, the Great-Quake moniker was reassigned. But things have changed since 1906 and the Hayward is now considered the most urbanized fault in the nation. It runs for 40 miles through the East Bay's most densely populated areas, not to mention key infrastructure such as airports, freeways, rail lines, and a major port.
Scientists say it's also the most likely source for the Bay Area's next "great quake."
"The Hayward Fault is ready now," says UC Berkeley seismologist Roland Burgmann. "It has built up all the energy it needs for a future event, so it could happen today, but it could also still wait another couple decades and then just have a somewhat larger event, because it took longer."
Scientists have calculated about a 30 percent chance that the Hayward will "break big" -- with a M6.7 event or bigger -- within 30 years.
So, scientists have been trying to handicap where the fault is most likely to slip again, by mapping portions of the fault that are constantly slipping in slow-motion, or "creeping," and portions that are "locked."
Those locked portions hold the biggest quake potential because when they finally break loose, far more energy is released.
"If we know where the fault is locked versus creeping," explains Burgmann, "we can much better say which areas, which neighborhoods are more strongly affected." | | |
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| | | Planarians are tiny googly-eyed flatworms with an uncanny ability: They can regrow their entire bodies, even a new head. So how do they do it? | | |
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| | | The notion that a person's gender is forever defined by the sex listed on their birth certificate is at odds with everything we know about the way gender identity develops. | | |
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| | | Every heat death is preventable. It's just going to take time, money, and a strong standard for warning people of danger. | | |
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| | | A November ballot measure could end tight cages for veal calves, pigs and egg-laying hens both inside California and beyond state lines. | | |
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| | | On November 6, Californians will weigh in on whether they want to continue changing their clocks twice a year. Proposition 7 on the statewide ballot would lay the groundwork for year-round Daylight Saving Time in the state. | | |
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| | | President Trump fired another shot in his ongoing war with California, signing a directive to boost water supplies for farmers, which in turn could come at the expense of endangered fish. | | |
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| | | The U.S. government is trying to block a major climate change lawsuit days before young activists are set to argue that the government has violated their constitutional rights by failing to take action on climate change. | | |
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| | | This year's roster is jam packed with engaging talks, workshops, and exhibits for all ages. The 8th annual Bay Area Science Festival returns October 26 - November 3. | | |
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