We made it to the NFC! We're halfway through the team previews! I've had several requests for access to previous newsletters and rankings and wanted to let anybody looking for those know that both will be available on SportsLine. I'll tweet a link out for each when they are made available, so be sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren't already.

Before diving into Fantasy analysis for each team, I'll present a brief overview containing their offensive ranks in my baseline team projections as well as any notable coaching or offensive line changes.

Projected Offensive Plays – (25th)

Projected Passing TDs – 23.8 (22nd)

Projected Rushing TDs – 19.1 (12th)

Notable coaching changes:

• Run it back! Arizona's new-look coaching staff was a pleasant surprise in 2023.

Notable offensive line changes

• Signed right tackle Jonah Williams
• Drafted guard Isaiah Adams in Round 3
• Drafted tackle Christian Jones in Round 5

With the addition of Williams to play right tackle, Arizona will shift the sixth overall pick from the 2023 NFL Draft, Paris Johnson Jr. over to left tackle. That's the position that he played at Ohio State. Johnson was a bit underwhelming as a rookie, and any improvement that he is able to make from Year 1 to Year 2 will be pivotal in pushing this line from average to good.

Arizona also drafted 273-pound blocking tight end Tip Reipman in Round 3. I found this analysis from Nate Tice very interesting regarding the potential for more two and three-tight end sets from the Cardinals, how the presence of Marvin Harrison Jr. as the "X" receiver may force defenses into mismatches when forced to cover 12 and 13 personnel, and how this may result in an additional boost for the run game.

The Cardinals improved the run game dramatically in the first year under offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, offensive line coach Klayton Adams, and running backs coach Audric Denson. That trio joined forces in 2023 to engineer one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL in their first crack at designing an NFL run game. The Cardinals were one of just three teams (Miami and Detroit being the other two) with a positive rushing EPA (expected points added) on RB rush attempts.

In an era of forward-thinking play-callers who are constantly innovating to stay ahead of the ever-evolving defensive meta, Drew Petzing stands out like a sore thumb. So many of the new head coach and offensive coordinator hires come from the Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay coaching tree and emphasize agile offenses with heavy pre-snap motion usage.

Arizona's head coach/offensive coordinator duo of Jonathan Gannon/Petzing is one of the NFL's youngest (Gannon is 41, Petzing is 37 years old), but they play like one of the oldest. The two spent several years together on Mike Zimmer's coaching staff in Minnesota, and Petzing then spent three years working with Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland before his successful OC debut in 2023. This coaching history is evident in Petzing's play-calling. Petzing's offensive design reminds me more of Stefanski or Shane Steichen than the West Coast-style play-callers proliferating throughout the NFL as advanced play sequencers that can put a defense on its heels. Petzing is more like Steichen in his ability to size up a defense and find weaknesses that he can counter and pick on. Arizona's game-to-game offensive design was extremely fluid. Personnel packages changed week-to-week. Shotgun rates fluctuated, even the run game scheme changed depending on the matchup.

Overall, Petzing's offense is centered on the run game and play-action usage. The Cardinals ranked 28th in situation-neutral (score within six points) pass rate (52.5%). The Cardinals passed the ball only 42% of the time on first downs (also 28th) in neutral situations. This was a run-first offense that played to the strength of its offensive personnel (James Conner and Kyler Murray).

Petzing's offense mixed in both shotgun and under-center looks, ranking middle of the pack in shotgun usage (72%). Arizona's pre-snap motion rate on pass plays was only 33%, ranking 26th in the NFL. Petzing's offensive philosophy appeared to be more about maximizing his player's skill sets by finding defensive weaknesses to exploit and putting his players in the best position to succeed, a simple strategy that worked surprisingly well given the relative lack of talent in Arizona's offense. The success that this coaching staff found with this approach is extremely exciting as more talented players are added to the arsenal.

The specific run scheme data from Petzing's debut suggests that man/gap rushing is going to be a huge part of how this offense attacks and carves away consistent chunks out of opposing defenses to set up winnable situations for the passing offense. Specifically, the Cardinals were at the forefront of a 2023 move to more "duo" rushing. This schematic shift sets up quite nicely for James Conner. During his time as a Steeler, Conner was primarily a man/gap rusher. Throughout his career, he's been noticeably more efficient on those runs than zone runs. The beginning of his Cardinals tenure featured a heavy dosage of zone runs, but Conner appears to have found a perfect pairing with Petzing.

It will be very interesting to see how rookie Trey Benson factors into the 2024 gameplan because Conner was seriously so freaking good last year. It's hard to imagine the Cardinals moving away from him in a significant way. This offense will likely center around Conner, and just when he has worn defenses down, we'll see the electric Benson push defenses to the breaking point. This may prove to be one of the deadliest "thunder and lightning" rushing duos in the NFL. Benson was a great man/gap rusher at the collegiate level and offers explosive upside.

The only running back (minimum 100 attempts) who averaged more yards after contact per rush than Conner was De'Von Achane. The only back who posted a higher avoided tackle rate was Jaylen Warren. The only higher explosive rush (10+ yards) rates belonged to Achane, Warren, and Christian McCaffrey. No running back had a higher EPA per rush in short-yardage situations (three or fewer yards to gain a first down) than Conner. Only Achane, Raheem Mostert, CMC, and Kyren Williams registered higher PFF rushing grades. He also posted the sixth-highest PFF pass-blocking grade among 38 qualifiers.

I have the Cardinals projected for the ninth-most rush attempts and 12th-most rushing touchdowns in 2024. For as long as his health holds up, Conner will likely take on the bulk of that work. Early in the season, he'll project as a top-15 RB for me. And he may just hold onto that status all year. While I'm psyched to watch Benson with the ball in his hands, we have no evidence of him working as an every-down back at the collegiate level. Realistically, Conner will be the primary back in this offense all season long during Benson's rookie campaign.

Trey McBride unlocked a lot of things for this offense. Particularly, he was a play-action weapon. McBride somehow had the third-highest percentage team target share on play-action plays in 2023. He wasn't a full-time player until Week 8! McBride accounted for 33% of Arizona's season-long play action target share, ranking behind only Michael Pittman (37%) and Tyreek Hill (35%). Play-action targets are pass game cheat codes.

McBride recorded a target share above 20% in every single game upon becoming a full-time player. For reference, Sam LaPorta had a target share above 20% in 6 of 17 games. Travis Kelce hit that mark in 10 of 15. McBride went 12 for 12. He finished as a top-12 Fantasy TE in 10 of 12 games.

At the collegiate level, McBride's final season was unlike anything produced by any other tight end during the years that I have the data available (dating back to 2017). In terms of both his ability to draw targets and produce yardage, McBride was a truly unique tight end prospect. And in his first taste of real NFL opportunities, McBride displayed the exact same talent.

McBride led the tight end position in targets and first downs per route run in his second NFL season, and only George Kittle averaged more yards per route run.

I expect McBride to remain a focal point of Arizona's offense, while Marvin Harrison Jr. only helps raise the roof and create more room for McBride and the run game to create yardage in the short-to-intermediate area.

McBride's average depth of target was only 6.6 yards in 2023, MHJ had an aDOT of 13.5 yards at Ohio State. Hollywood Brown was one of the least efficient "X" receivers in the NFL. Replacing him with one of the best "X" receiver prospects in recent memory is extremely exciting for this offense. If Harrison Jr. is the player that we saw in college, he will immediately add a new dynamic to this offense. Defenses did not have to respect the deep ball against the Cardinals in 2023. Harrison Jr. may be one of the league's most dangerous boundary field-stretchers as a rookie. He is going to open up more options for Petzing's offense.

Per the excellent work of Matt Harmon on ReceptionPerception.com:

"There is no question that Harrison was treated differently by opposing defenses than just about any other collegiate receiver. His 16.8% double-covered route rate is the highest I've charted for a prospect over a full sample in Reception Perception history. And that extra attention didn't bother him in the slightest. No other receiver who has been doubled on more than 8.5% of his routes in the RP database hit a 70% success rate…prior to Marvin Harrison Jr. joining their ranks."

Read Marvin Harrison Jr.'s full Reception Perception profile!

Since 2000, there have been 10 receivers who were selected as a top-five NFL Draft pick and played 14+ games. The average PPR output during the rookie season for that group was 200.9 points. Only Ja'Marr Chase (304.6), A.J. Green (218), and Amari Cooper (212.7) exceeded 200 points. For reference, 33 different wide receivers scored 200 PPR points in 2023.

Several of those receivers went on to post massive numbers as soon as Year 2. The list included the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, and Calvin Johnson. None of those receivers were impact players as rookies. For Harrison Jr. to be worth his current average draft position, he's going to need 250+ points. And really, 300+ is the number MHJ will need to be a "league-winner" at this price.

For reference, here are the top rookie WR seasons in terms of PPR scoring. Shoutout statmuse.com, such an incredible resource.

My projections have MHJ accounting for a 25.5% target share and finishing between 256 and 304 PPR points with 270 as a median outcome. His ability to swing to the upside of that 300+ range is real but not necessarily likely. It'd require truly exceptional efficiency on yardage and touchdown conversion, which isn't exactly something that Murray is known for producing. I don't see an outcome where this offense is near the top of the league in passing volume, so reaching the top of his range of outcomes is going to be tied to those efficiency metrics.

I'd be very surprised if MHJ fails as a pro. He profiles as one of the "safest" wide receiver prospects in recent memory, he can win in so many ways. He feels almost like a lock to be a solid real-life contributor. For Fantasy purposes, if considering the downside, it's worth noting that a downfield-oriented role might limit his target upside. It's entirely possible that Harrison Jr. could fall well below the 25.5% target share that I project him for. Harrison Jr.'s collegiate target-per-route run rate was fantastic, but there just aren't many receivers who draw targets at a high rate while working primarily as a boundary field-stretcher.

Displayed below are the receivers who posted the highest target per route run rates among wideouts with an average route depth of 10+ yards in 2023. Average route depth refers to the distance from the line of scrimmage at which a player's initial cut in a route comes.

Justin Jefferson is clearly the best WR in the NFL, according to my eyes. He ranked 10th in target per route run rate last year. Nico Collins ranked 14th. Brandon Aiyuk wasn't even top 20. It's hard to demand targets at a high rate while working so deep down the field.

We don't know that this is the way that Harrison Jr. is going to be used, but that is the prototype. He was the "X" receiver for 68% of his routes run at Ohio State. That's an extremely high rate. His average route depth was 9.4 yards.

My projections have Marvin Harrison Jr. scoring more Fantasy points than Aiyuk, Drake London, and Chris Olave. There's more downside risk with him than any of that group (London is close, though), as we really don't know what his role will look like. So, I get it if his current draft cost is too rich for your blood. That's about where I'm at with him, I have him ranked as the WR10 behind Collins, Garrett Wilson, and Puka Nacua. I occasionally land him in drafts where others are afraid to pick him. His median projection is much higher than I expected, and I do think there's a decent chance of him approaching his ceiling projection through a surprising touchdown total. I'm pretty bullish on Petzing as a play-caller and feel fairly confident that this Cardinals offense is going to bully opponents on the ground. If this offense really hits its stride in Year 2 under Petzing, the Cardinals could sneakily post a top-10 point total. Vegas lookahead lines have Arizona sitting at 21st, just behind the Chargers and Seahawks. Speaking of the Seahawks, we get another opportunity to explore an exciting up-and-coming offensive play-caller in Ryan Grubb in tomorrow's newsletter!

I'll be back in your inbox every weekday with a new team preview during the month of July! Friday, we will be covering the Seattle Seahawks. If you have any feedback on the team-by-team previews or any questions about the upcoming teams, feel free to send them my way.